Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
Language
EN
Article de revue
This item was published in
Frontiers in Climate. 2022-09-16, vol. 4
English Abstract
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible ...Read more >
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.Read less <
English Keywords
Decadal climate
Attribution
External forcings
Large ensembles
Model intercomparison
Lighthouse Activity
European Project
Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections
ANR Project
The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events