SMITH, Doug M.; GILLETT, Nathan P.; SIMPSON, Isla R.; ATHANASIADIS, Panos; BAEHR, Johanna; BETHKE, Ingo; BILGE, Tarkan A.; BONNET, Remy; BOUCHER, Olivier; FINDELL, Kirsten L.; GASTINEAU, Guillaume; GUALDI, Silvio; HERMANSON, Leon; LEUNG, L. Ruby; MIGNOT, Juliette; MULLER, Wolfgang A.; OSPREY, Scott; OTTERA, Odd Helge; PERSAD, Geeta G.; SCAIFE, Adam A.; SCHMIDT, Gavin A.; SHIOGAMA, Hideo; SUTTON, Rowan T.; SWINGEDOUW, Didier; YANG, Shuting; ZHOU, Tianjun; ZIEHN, Tilo

doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.955414

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Article de revue

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Frontiers in Climate. 2022-09-16, vol. 4

Resumen en inglés

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.< Leer menos

Palabras clave en inglés

Decadal climate

Attribution

External forcings

Large ensembles

Model intercomparison

Lighthouse Activity

URI

https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/170369

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.955414

Proyecto europeo

Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections

Proyecto ANR

The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events

Centros de investigación

EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805

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Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)