The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics
Langue
EN
Article de revue
Ce document a été publié dans
PLoS ONE. 2021-05, vol. 16, n° 5 May
Résumé en anglais
Lockdown curbs the COVID-19 epidemics but at huge costs. Public debates question its impact compared to reliance on individual responsibility. We study how rationally chosen self-protective behavior impacts the spread of ...Lire la suite >
Lockdown curbs the COVID-19 epidemics but at huge costs. Public debates question its impact compared to reliance on individual responsibility. We study how rationally chosen self-protective behavior impacts the spread of the epidemics and interacts with policies. We first assess the value of lockdown in terms of mortality compared to a counterfactual scenario that incorporates self-protection efforts; and second, assess how individual behavior modify the epidemic dynamics when public regulations change. We couple an SLIAR model, that includes asymptomatic transmission, with utility maximization: Individuals trade off economic and wellbeing costs from physical distancing with a lower infection risk. Physical distancing effort depends on risk aversion, perceptions of the epidemics and average distancing effort in the population. Rational distancing effort is computed as a Nash Equilibrium. Equilibrium effort differs markedly from constant, stochastic or proportional contacts reduction. It adjusts to daily incidence of hospitalization in a way that creates a slightly decreasing plateau in epidemic prevalence. Calibration on French data shows that a business-as-usual benchmark yields an overestimation of the number of deaths by a factor of 10 compared to benchmarks with equilibrium efforts. However, lockdown saves nearly twice as many lives as individual efforts alone. Public policies post-lockdown have a limited impact as they partly crowd out individual efforts. Communication that increases risk salience is more effective. Copyright: © 2021 Aubert, Augeraud-Véron.< Réduire
Mots clés en anglais
Asymptomatic Disease
Asymptomatic Diseases
Covid-19
Epidemiology
Hospitalization
Hospitalization
Human
Humans
Incidence
Incidence
Isolation And Purification
Models
Mortality
Physical Distancing
Public Policy
Public Policy
Risk
Risk
Sars-Cov-2
Theoretical
Theoretical Model
Virology
Unités de recherche