The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| hal.structure.identifier | Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée [GREThA] | |
| dc.contributor.author | AUBERT, Cecile
IDREF: 07594717X | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée [GREThA] | |
| dc.contributor.author | AUGERAUD VERON, Emmanuelle | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-11-17T15:31:10Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-11-17T15:31:10Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-05 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1932-6203 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/123846 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | Lockdown curbs the COVID-19 epidemics but at huge costs. Public debates question its impact compared to reliance on individual responsibility. We study how rationally chosen self-protective behavior impacts the spread of the epidemics and interacts with policies. We first assess the value of lockdown in terms of mortality compared to a counterfactual scenario that incorporates self-protection efforts; and second, assess how individual behavior modify the epidemic dynamics when public regulations change. We couple an SLIAR model, that includes asymptomatic transmission, with utility maximization: Individuals trade off economic and wellbeing costs from physical distancing with a lower infection risk. Physical distancing effort depends on risk aversion, perceptions of the epidemics and average distancing effort in the population. Rational distancing effort is computed as a Nash Equilibrium. Equilibrium effort differs markedly from constant, stochastic or proportional contacts reduction. It adjusts to daily incidence of hospitalization in a way that creates a slightly decreasing plateau in epidemic prevalence. Calibration on French data shows that a business-as-usual benchmark yields an overestimation of the number of deaths by a factor of 10 compared to benchmarks with equilibrium efforts. However, lockdown saves nearly twice as many lives as individual efforts alone. Public policies post-lockdown have a limited impact as they partly crowd out individual efforts. Communication that increases risk salience is more effective. Copyright: © 2021 Aubert, Augeraud-Véron. | |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution 3.0 United States | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/ | |
| dc.subject.en | Asymptomatic Disease | |
| dc.subject.en | Asymptomatic Diseases | |
| dc.subject.en | Covid-19 | |
| dc.subject.en | Epidemiology | |
| dc.subject.en | Hospitalization | |
| dc.subject.en | Hospitalization | |
| dc.subject.en | Human | |
| dc.subject.en | Humans | |
| dc.subject.en | Incidence | |
| dc.subject.en | Incidence | |
| dc.subject.en | Isolation And Purification | |
| dc.subject.en | Models | |
| dc.subject.en | Mortality | |
| dc.subject.en | Physical Distancing | |
| dc.subject.en | Public Policy | |
| dc.subject.en | Public Policy | |
| dc.subject.en | Risk | |
| dc.subject.en | Risk | |
| dc.subject.en | Sars-Cov-2 | |
| dc.subject.en | Theoretical | |
| dc.subject.en | Theoretical Model | |
| dc.subject.en | Virology | |
| dc.title.en | The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics | |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1371/journal.pone.0250764 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Économie et finance quantitative [q-fin] | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | PLoS ONE | en_US |
| bordeaux.volume | 16 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA) - UMR 5113 | en_US |
| bordeaux.issue | 5 May | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | CNRS | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| hal.export | false | |
| dc.rights.cc | Pas de Licence CC | en_US |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=PLoS%20ONE&rft.date=2021-05&rft.volume=16&rft.issue=5%20May&rft.eissn=1932-6203&rft.issn=1932-6203&rft.au=AUBERT,%20Cecile&AUGERAUD%20VERON,%20Emmanuelle&rft.genre=article |
