DESCOMBES, Patrice; WISZ, Mary S.; LEPRIEUR, Fabien; PARRAVICINI, Valerianio; HEINE, Christian; OLSEN, Steffen M.; SWINGEDOUW, Didier; KULBICKI, Michel; MOUILLOT, David; PELLISSIER, Loïc

doi:10.1111/gcb.12868

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DESCOMBES, Patrice
Unit of Ecology and Evolution

WISZ, Mary S.
Department of Ecology and Environment

LEPRIEUR, Fabien
Ecologie des systèmes marins côtiers [Ecosym]

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Global Change Biology. 2015-03p. Epub ahead of print

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Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity.Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequenceof future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditionshave no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecastedchanges for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecastingthe future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respectiveclimatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change.We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16%by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitabilitymay decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especiallyin the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs,including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posingchallenges to conservation actions under climate change.< Réduire

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fish

fossil

sea surface temperature

specialists

species distribution model

species richness

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Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

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