FAWAZ, Mahdi; LE QUELLEC, Erwan

doi:10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350

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FAWAZ, Mahdi
Bordeaux Sciences Economiques [BSE]

LE QUELLEC, Erwan

Bordeaux Sciences Economiques [BSE]

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Article de revue

Ce document a été publié dans

Defence and Peace Economics. 2022-10-15p. 1-28

Résumé en anglais

n this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in explaining civil wars. After controlling for spatial distances between rival countries, we demonstrate that 1) the presence of direct and indirect rivals exerts a positive and significant effect on the risk of civil war; 2) decreasing levels of military capacity of one state relative to its rivals (direct and indirect) also influence the probability of internal conflict. Finally, we confirm the significance of our indicators by using on the one hand the random forest algorithm, a machine learning method using decision trees and on the other hand, the Kaplan-Meier estimate for the duration of the civil wars.< Réduire

Mots clés

indirect rivalries

military capabilities

Mots clés en anglais

Civil wars

international relations