Indirect Rivalries and Civil Wars: Empirical Evidence
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux Sciences Economiques [BSE] | |
| dc.contributor.author | FAWAZ, Mahdi | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux Sciences Economiques [BSE] | |
| dc.contributor.author | LE QUELLEC, Erwan | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-28T10:17:56Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-10-28T10:17:56Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-10-15 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1024-2694 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | oai:crossref.org:10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/170137 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | n this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in explaining civil wars. After controlling for spatial distances between rival countries, we demonstrate that 1) the presence of direct and indirect rivals exerts a positive and significant effect on the risk of civil war; 2) decreasing levels of military capacity of one state relative to its rivals (direct and indirect) also influence the probability of internal conflict. Finally, we confirm the significance of our indicators by using on the one hand the random forest algorithm, a machine learning method using decision trees and on the other hand, the Kaplan-Meier estimate for the duration of the civil wars. | |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.source | crossref | |
| dc.subject | indirect rivalries | |
| dc.subject | military capabilities | |
| dc.subject.en | Civil wars | |
| dc.subject.en | international relations | |
| dc.title.en | Indirect Rivalries and Civil Wars: Empirical Evidence | |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods::C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables::C33 - Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | H - Public Economics::H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies::H56 - National Security and War | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | D - Microeconomics::D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making::D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | N - Economic History::N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation::N40 - General, International, or Comparative | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | P - Economic Systems::P4 - Other Economic Systems::P48 - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | Defence and Peace Economics | en_US |
| bordeaux.page | 1-28 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Bordeaux Sciences Economiques / Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE) - UMR 6060 | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | CNRS | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| bordeaux.import.source | dissemin | |
| hal.identifier | hal-03833327 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.date.transferred | 2022-10-28T10:17:58Z | |
| hal.export | true | |
| workflow.import.source | dissemin | |
| dc.rights.cc | Pas de Licence CC | en_US |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Defence%20and%20Peace%20Economics&rft.date=2022-10-15&rft.spage=1-28&rft.epage=1-28&rft.eissn=1024-2694&rft.issn=1024-2694&rft.au=FAWAZ,%20Mahdi&LE%20QUELLEC,%20Erwan&rft.genre=article |
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