The Global Financial Cycle and Us Monetary Policy in An Interconnected World
DÉES, Stéphane
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
DÉES, Stéphane
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
< Reduce
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
Language
EN
Article de revue
This item was published in
Journal of International Money and Finance. 2021-07, vol. 115, p. 102395
English Abstract
We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to ...Read more >
We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global Financial Cycle, which boosts macroeconomic activity worldwide. We also find that economies with floating exchange rate regimes are not fully insulated from US monetary policy shocks and, even though they appear to be relatively less affected by the shocks, the differences in responses across exchange rate regimes are not statistically significant. The role of US monetary policy in driving these macro-financial spillovers gets even reinforced by the complex network of interactions across countries, to the extent that network effects roughly double the direct impacts of US monetary policy surprises on international equity prices, capital flows, and global growth. This amplification increases as countries get more globally integrated over time, suggesting that the evolving network is an important driver for the increasing role of US monetary policy in shaping the Global Financial Cycle.Read less <
English Keywords
Trilemma
Global financial cycle
Monetary policy spillovers
Network effects