PRAGUE, Melanie; WITTKOP, Linda; CLAIRON, Quentin; DUTARTRE, Dan; THIEBAUT, Rodolphe; HEJBLUM, Boris

Métadonnées

Afficher la notice complète

Licence d’utilisation du document

PRAGUE, Melanie

Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]

WITTKOP, Linda
Bordeaux population health [BPH]

CLAIRON, Quentin
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]

Langue

Document de travail - Pré-publication

Résumé en anglais

We propose a population approach to model the beginning of the French COVID-19 epidemic at the regional level. We rely on an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) mechanistic model, a simplified representation of the average epidemic process. Combining several French public datasets on the early dynamics of the epidemic, we estimate region-specific key parameters conditionally on this mechanistic model through Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization (SAEM) optimization using Monolix software. We thus estimate basic reproductive numbers by region before isolation (between 2.4 and 3.1), the percentage of infected people over time (between 2.0 and 5.9% as of May 11 th , 2020) and the impact of nationwide lockdown on the infection rate (decreasing the transmission rate by 72% toward a R e ranging from 0.7 to 0.9). We conclude that a lifting of the lockdown should be accompanied by further interventions to avoid an epidemic rebound.< Réduire

Mots clés en anglais

Population modeling

SARS-CoV-2

Non-pharmaceutical intervention

Compartmental model

COVID-19

France

URI

https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27204

Unités de recherche

Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219