ROSTAMI-TABAR, B.; BABAI, Mohamed Zied; DUCQ, Yves; SYNTETOS, A.

doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.10.001

Métadonnées

Afficher la notice complète

Licence d’utilisation du document

ROSTAMI-TABAR, B.

BABAI, Mohamed Zied
Kedge Business School [Kedge BS]

DUCQ, Yves

Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système [IMS]

Langue

Article de revue

Ce document a été publié dans

International Journal of Production Economics. 2015, vol. 170, p. 297-309

Résumé en anglais

In this paper the relative effectiveness of top-down (TD) versus bottom-up (BU) approaches is compared for cross-sectionally forecasting aggregate and sub-aggregate demand. We assume that the sub-aggregate demand follows a non-stationary Integrated Moving Average (IMA) process of order one and a Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) procedure is used to extrapolate future requirements. Such demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry (in addition to being the optimal estimator for an IMA process). Theoretical variances of forecast error are derived for the BU and TD approach in order to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation at both the aggregate and sub-aggregate level, in addition to empirically validating our findings on a real dataset from a European superstore. The results demonstrate the increased benefit resulting from cross-sectional forecasting in a non-stationary environment than in a stationary one. Valuable insights are offered to demand planners and the paper closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.< Réduire

Mots clés en anglais

Cross-Sectional Aggregation

Demand Forecasting

Non-Stationary Processes

Single Exponential Smoothing

Métadonnées

Partager cette publication !

Licence d’utilisation du document

Non-stationary demand forecasting by cross-sectional aggregation

Langue

Ce document a été publié dans

Résumé en anglais

Mots clés en anglais

URI

DOI

Unités de recherche