Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations
DOMEC, Jean-Christophe
Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
Nicholas School of the Environment
Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
Nicholas School of the Environment
EDDY, Moors
Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] [VU]
< Réduire
Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] [VU]
Langue
en
Article de revue
Ce document a été publié dans
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2016, vol. 223, p. 151-167
Elsevier Masson
Résumé en anglais
The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled ...Lire la suite >
The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison with eddy covariance (EC) observations from 240 globally distributed sites from 2000 to 2009. In addition, we improved global terrestrial LE estimates for different land cover types by synthesis of seven best CMIP5 models and EC observations based on a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The comparison results showed substantial differences in monthly LE among all GCMs. The model CESM1-CAM5 has the best performance with the highest predictive skill and a Taylor skill score (S) from 0.51–0.75 for different land cover types. The cross-validation results illustrate that the BMA method has improved the accuracy of the CMIP5 GCM’s LE simulation with a decrease in the averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) by more than 3 W/m2 when compared to the simple model averaging (SMA) method and individual GCMs. We found an increasing trend in the BMA-based global terrestrial LE (slope of 0.018 W/m2 yr−1, p < 0.05) during the period 1970–2005. This variation may be attributed directly to the inter-annual variations in air temperature (Ta), surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and precipitation (P). However, our study highlights a large difference from previous studies in a continuous increasing trend after 1998, which may be caused by the combined effects of the variations of Rs, Ta, and P on LE for different models on these time scales. This study provides corrected-modeling evidence for an accelerated global water cycle with climate change.< Réduire
Mots clés
atmosphère terrestre
biosphère
chaleur latente
cycle hydrologique
loi de taylor
Mots clés en anglais
global terrestrial LE
CMIP5
GCMs
BMA
taylor skill score
terrestrial atmosphere
latent heat
water cycle
Origine
Importé de halUnités de recherche