A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos
BARNIER, Bernard
P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology [SIO]
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE]
P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology [SIO]
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE]
TERRAY, Laurent
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique [CERFACS]
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Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique [CERFACS]
Langue
en
Article de revue
Ce document a été publié dans
Geophysical Research Letters. 2017-06-16, vol. 44, n° 11, p. 5580-5589
American Geophysical Union
Résumé en anglais
A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the ...Lire la suite >
A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large-scale (10 ∘ × 10 ∘) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual-to-decadal large-scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0-700 m, 700-2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy-active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large-scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980-2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations.< Réduire
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