BORCHERT, Leonard F.; MENARY, Matthew; SWINGEDOUW, Didier; SGUBIN, Giovanni; HERMANSON, Leon; MIGNOT, Juliette

doi:10.1029/2020gl091307

BORCHERT, Leonard F.
Océan et variabilité du climat [LOCEAN-VARCLIM]

MENARY, Matthew
Océan et variabilité du climat [LOCEAN-VARCLIM]

SWINGEDOUW, Didier

Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]

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Article de revue

Este ítem está publicado en

Geophysical Research Letters. 2021-01-28, vol. 48, n° 3, p. e2020GL091307

Resumen en inglés

Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST.< Leer menos

Palabras clave en inglés

climate prediction

CMIP5

CMIP6

North Atlantic

subpolar gyre

URI

https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188134

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307

Proyecto europeo

European Climate Prediction system
Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe

Proyecto ANR

Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage - ANR-17-EQPX-0001

Centros de investigación

EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805

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Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6