INTRODUCTION: Vascular dementia is the second most common cause of dementia. Physical disability and cognitive impairment due to stroke are conditions that considerably affect quality of life. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of possible vascular dementia (PVD) in older adults using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS 2012 and 2015 waves). METHODS: The MHAS is a representative longitudinal cohort study of Mexican adults aged ≥50 years. Data from 14, 893 participants from the 2012 cohort and 14,154 from the 2015 cohort were analyzed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of PVD. Self-respondents with history of stroke were classified as PVD if scores in two or more cognitive domains in the Cross-Cultural Cognitive Examination were ≥ 1.5 standard deviations below the mean on reference norms and if limitations in ≥ 1 instrumental activities of daily living were present. For proxy respondents with history of stroke, we used a score ≥3.4 on the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly. Crude and standardized rates of prevalent and incident PVD were estimated. RESULTS: Prevalence of PVD was 0.6% (95% CI, 0.5-0.8) (0.5 with age and sex- standardization). Rates increased with age reaching 2.0% among those aged 80 and older and decreased with educational attainment. After 3.0 years of follow-up, 87 new cases of PVD represented an overall incident rate of 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7-2.6) per 1,000 person-years (2.0 with age and sex- standardization). Incidence also increased with advancing age reaching an overall rate of 9.4 (95% CI, 6.3-13.6) per 1,000 person-years for participants aged >80 years. Hypertension and depressive symptoms were strong predictors of incident PVD. CONCLUSION: These data provide new estimates of PVD prevalence and incidence in the Mexican population. We found that PVD incidence increased with age. Males aged 80 years or older showed a greater incidence rate when compared to females, which is comparable to previous estimates from other studies.< Réduire