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hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
dc.contributor.authorSGUBIN, Giovanni
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute [KNMI]
dc.contributor.authorDRIJFHOUT, Sybren
dc.contributor.authorMARY, Yannick
dc.contributor.authorBENNABI, Amine
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-14T09:42:32Z
dc.date.available2021-05-14T09:42:32Z
dc.date.issued2017-04
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/76743
dc.description.abstractEnObservations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.
dc.description.sponsorshipLabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes - ANR-10-LABX-0018
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
dc.title.enAbrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/ncomms14375
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeEarth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeInfrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeBlue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat
bordeaux.journalNature Communications
bordeaux.page14375
bordeaux.volume8
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInstitut de Mécanique et d’Ingénierie de Bordeaux (I2M) - UMR 5295*
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeaux
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux INP
bordeaux.institutionCNRS
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.institutionArts et Métiers
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifiercea-02138768
hal.version1
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//cea-02138768v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature%20Communications&rft.date=2017-04&rft.volume=8&rft.spage=14375&rft.epage=14375&rft.eissn=2041-1723&rft.issn=2041-1723&rft.au=SGUBIN,%20Giovanni&SWINGEDOUW,%20Didier&DRIJFHOUT,%20Sybren&MARY,%20Yannick&BENNABI,%20Amine&rft.genre=article


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