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Helio1D modeling of temporal variation of solar wind: Interfacing between MULTI-VP and 1D MHD for future operational forecasting at L1

hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorKIEOKAEW, Rungployphan
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorPINTO, Rui
hal.structure.identifierNASA Goddard Space Flight Center [GSFC]
hal.structure.identifierCatholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven [KU Leuven]
dc.contributor.authorSAMARA, E.
dc.contributor.authorTAO, C.
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorINDURAIN, Mikel
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Astrophysique de Bordeaux [Pessac] [LAB]
dc.contributor.authorLAVRAUD, Benoit
hal.structure.identifierDPHY, ONERA, Université de Toulouse [Toulouse]
dc.contributor.authorBRUNET, Antoine
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorGÉNOT, Vincent
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorROUILLARD, Alexis
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorANDRÉ, Nicolas
hal.structure.identifierDPHY, ONERA, Université de Toulouse [Toulouse]
dc.contributor.authorBOURDARIE, Sébastien
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorKATSAVRIAS, C.
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorDARROUZET, F.
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences [IAP]
dc.contributor.authorGRISON, Benjamin
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie [IRAP]
dc.contributor.authorDAGLIS, I.
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-03T02:11:09Z
dc.date.available2024-08-03T02:11:09Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.issn2115-7251
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/201153
dc.description.abstractEnDeveloping an automated pipeline for solar-wind condition prediction upstream of Earth is an important step for transitioning from space weather research to operation. We develop a prototype pipeline called “Helio1D” to model ambient solar wind conditions comprising temporal profiles of wind speed, density, temperature, and tangential magnetic field at L1 up to 4 days in advance. The prototype pipeline connects the MULTI-VP coronal model that provides daily predictions of the solar wind at 0.14 AU and a 1D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model that propagates the solar wind to 1 AU. As a part of development towards a better-performing operational pipeline in the future, our present work focuses on the proof-of-concept, initial implementation, and validation of Helio1D. Here, we first benchmark Helio1D using the synoptic magnetograms provided by Wilcox Space Observatory as inputs to the coronal part of MULTI-VP for the intervals in 2004–2013 and 2017–2018. Using the classic point-to-point metrics, it is found that Helio1D underperforms the 27-day recurrence model for all time intervals while outperforming the 4-day persistence model in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. As a complementary analysis, we evaluate the time and magnitude differences between Helio1D and the observations by exploiting the Fast Dynamic Time Warping technique, which allows us to discuss Helio1D caveats and address calibration to improve the Helio1D performance. Furthermore, we model several solar wind conditions in parallel, for a total of 21 profiles corresponding to various virtual targets to provide uncertainties. Although our prototype pipeline shows less satisfactory results compared to existing works, it is fully automated and computationally fast, both of which are desirable qualities for operational forecasting. Our strategies for future improvements towards better-performing pipeline are addressed.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEDP sciences
dc.subject.enSpace weather
dc.subject.enSolar wind
dc.subject.enCorotating interaction region
dc.title.enHelio1D modeling of temporal variation of solar wind: Interfacing between MULTI-VP and 1D MHD for future operational forecasting at L1
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1051/swsc/2024018
dc.subject.halPhysique [physics]/Physique [physics]/Physique de l'espace [physics.space-ph]
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Astrophysique [astro-ph]
bordeaux.journalJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate
bordeaux.page19
bordeaux.volume14
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesLaboratoire d'Astrophysique de Bordeaux (LAB) - UMR 5804*
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeaux
bordeaux.institutionCNRS
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04666680
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04666680v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20Space%20Weather%20and%20Space%20Climate&rft.date=2024&rft.volume=14&rft.spage=19&rft.epage=19&rft.eissn=2115-7251&rft.issn=2115-7251&rft.au=KIEOKAEW,%20Rungployphan&PINTO,%20Rui&SAMARA,%20E.&TAO,%20C.&INDURAIN,%20Mikel&rft.genre=article


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