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Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

dc.contributor.authorYAO, Yunjun
dc.contributor.authorLIANG, Shunlin
hal.structure.identifierCollege of Global Change and Earth System Science [GCESS]
dc.contributor.authorLI, Xianglan
dc.contributor.authorLIU, Shaomin
hal.structure.identifierCGCEO/Geography
dc.contributor.authorCHEN, Jiquan
dc.contributor.authorZHANG, Xiaotong
dc.contributor.authorJIA, Kun
dc.contributor.authorJIANG, Bo
dc.contributor.authorXIE, Xianhong
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales [LEGOS]
dc.contributor.authorMUNIER, Simon
dc.contributor.authorLIU, Meng
dc.contributor.authorYU, Jian
hal.structure.identifierGeoBiosphere Science Centre
dc.contributor.authorLINDROTH, Anders
hal.structure.identifierA.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution
dc.contributor.authorVARLAGIN, Andrej
hal.structure.identifierIstituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze] [IBIMET]
dc.contributor.authorRASCHI, Antonio
hal.structure.identifierDept. Forestry and Environmental Resources
dc.contributor.authorNOORMETS, Asko
hal.structure.identifierCESAM & Departamento de Ambiente e Ordenamento
dc.contributor.authorPIO, Casimiro
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Ecology
hal.structure.identifierEuropean Academy Bolzano
dc.contributor.authorWOHLFAHRT, Georg
hal.structure.identifierEastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station
dc.contributor.authorSUN, Ge
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
dc.contributor.authorDOMEC, Jean-Christophe
hal.structure.identifierFaculty of Science and Technology
hal.structure.identifierForest Services
dc.contributor.authorMONTAGNANI, Leonardo
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Bioscience
dc.contributor.authorLUND, Magnus
hal.structure.identifierClimate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management
hal.structure.identifierVrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] [VU]
dc.contributor.authorEDDY, Moors
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Geography
dc.contributor.authorBLANKEN, Peter D.
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Hydrology and Meteorology [Dresden]
dc.contributor.authorGRÜNWALD, Thomas
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Agricultural Sciences
dc.contributor.authorWOLF, Sebastian
hal.structure.identifierNational Research Council [CNR]
dc.contributor.authorMAGLIULO, Vincenzo
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-08T12:11:27Z
dc.date.available2024-04-08T12:11:27Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/196691
dc.description.abstractEnThe latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison with eddy covariance (EC) observations from 240 globally distributed sites from 2000 to 2009. In addition, we improved global terrestrial LE estimates for different land cover types by synthesis of seven best CMIP5 models and EC observations based on a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The comparison results showed substantial differences in monthly LE among all GCMs. The model CESM1-CAM5 has the best performance with the highest predictive skill and a Taylor skill score (S) from 0.51–0.75 for different land cover types. The cross-validation results illustrate that the BMA method has improved the accuracy of the CMIP5 GCM’s LE simulation with a decrease in the averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) by more than 3 W/m2 when compared to the simple model averaging (SMA) method and individual GCMs. We found an increasing trend in the BMA-based global terrestrial LE (slope of 0.018 W/m2 yr−1, p < 0.05) during the period 1970–2005. This variation may be attributed directly to the inter-annual variations in air temperature (Ta), surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and precipitation (P). However, our study highlights a large difference from previous studies in a continuous increasing trend after 1998, which may be caused by the combined effects of the variations of Rs, Ta, and P on LE for different models on these time scales. This study provides corrected-modeling evidence for an accelerated global water cycle with climate change.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Masson
dc.subjectatmosphère terrestre
dc.subjectbiosphère
dc.subjectchaleur latente
dc.subjectcycle hydrologique
dc.subjectloi de taylor
dc.subject.englobal terrestrial LE
dc.subject.enCMIP5
dc.subject.enGCMs
dc.subject.enBMA
dc.subject.entaylor skill score
dc.subject.enterrestrial atmosphere
dc.subject.enlatent heat
dc.subject.enwater cycle
dc.title.enAssessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.03.016
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux
bordeaux.journalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
bordeaux.page151-167
bordeaux.volume223
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInteractions Soil Plant Atmosphere (ISPA) - UMR 1391*
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux Sciences Agro
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-01512177
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceNon spécifiée
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-01512177v1
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