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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France: a modelling study

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
dc.contributor.authorPAIREAU, Juliette
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorCHARPIGNON, Marie-Laure
dc.contributor.authorLARRIEU, Sophie
dc.contributor.authorCALBA, Clementine
dc.contributor.authorHOZE, Nathanael
dc.contributor.authorBOELLE, Pierre Yves
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorTHIEBAUT, Rodolphe
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorPRAGUE, Melanie
dc.contributor.authorCAUCHEMEZ, Simon
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-13T10:41:41Z
dc.date.available2023-03-13T10:41:41Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/172270
dc.description.abstractEnBackground: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different meteorological conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels. Results: Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.9% (95%CI: 71.4-74.2), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.4% (56.1-64.3), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7pm and 8/9pm reduced R by 34.5% (28.1-40.4) and 18.4% (11.4-24.8), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.6% (1.6-7.4). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 74.0% (59.4-83.3), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 46.9% (38.2-56.0) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 41.7% (37.0-46.7) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of meteorological factors while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.
dc.description.sponsorshipIntegrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseasesen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipInstitut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - ANR-16-CONV-0005en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipDynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales - ANR-20-COVI-0018en_US
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.subject.enCOVID-19
dc.subject.enSARS-CoV-2
dc.subject.enNon-pharmaceutical interventions
dc.subject.enVaccination
dc.subject.enVariants
dc.subject.enClimate
dc.subject.enReproduction number
dc.subject.enMultivariable regression model
dc.title.enImpact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France: a modelling study
dc.typeDocument de travail - Pré-publicationen_US
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeRapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response researchen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeVersatile Emerging infectious disease Observatoryen_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesBordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionINSERMen_US
bordeaux.teamSISTM_BPHen_US
hal.exportfalse
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.au=PAIREAU,%20Juliette&CHARPIGNON,%20Marie-Laure&LARRIEU,%20Sophie&CALBA,%20Clementine&HOZE,%20Nathanael&rft.genre=preprint


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