Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France: a modelling study
CHARPIGNON, Marie-Laure
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
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Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
CHARPIGNON, Marie-Laure
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
THIEBAUT, Rodolphe
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
PRAGUE, Melanie
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
< Reduce
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Language
EN
Document de travail - Pré-publication
English Abstract
Background: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects ...Read more >
Background: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different meteorological conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels. Results: Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.9% (95%CI: 71.4-74.2), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.4% (56.1-64.3), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7pm and 8/9pm reduced R by 34.5% (28.1-40.4) and 18.4% (11.4-24.8), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.6% (1.6-7.4). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 74.0% (59.4-83.3), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 46.9% (38.2-56.0) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 41.7% (37.0-46.7) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of meteorological factors while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.Read less <
English Keywords
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Vaccination
Variants
Climate
Reproduction number
Multivariable regression model
European Project
Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research
Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory
Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory
ANR Project
Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases
Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - ANR-16-CONV-0005
Dynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales - ANR-20-COVI-0018
Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - ANR-16-CONV-0005
Dynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales - ANR-20-COVI-0018