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Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
dc.contributor.authorSMITH, Doug M.
dc.contributor.authorGILLETT, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.authorSIMPSON, Isla R.
dc.contributor.authorATHANASIADIS, Panos
dc.contributor.authorBAEHR, Johanna
dc.contributor.authorBETHKE, Ingo
dc.contributor.authorBILGE, Tarkan A.
dc.contributor.authorBONNET, Remy
dc.contributor.authorBOUCHER, Olivier
dc.contributor.authorFINDELL, Kirsten L.
dc.contributor.authorGASTINEAU, Guillaume
dc.contributor.authorGUALDI, Silvio
dc.contributor.authorHERMANSON, Leon
dc.contributor.authorLEUNG, L. Ruby
dc.contributor.authorMIGNOT, Juliette
dc.contributor.authorMULLER, Wolfgang A.
dc.contributor.authorOSPREY, Scott
dc.contributor.authorOTTERA, Odd Helge
dc.contributor.authorPERSAD, Geeta G.
dc.contributor.authorSCAIFE, Adam A.
dc.contributor.authorSCHMIDT, Gavin A.
dc.contributor.authorSHIOGAMA, Hideo
dc.contributor.authorSUTTON, Rowan T.
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
dc.contributor.authorYANG, Shuting
dc.contributor.authorZHOU, Tianjun
dc.contributor.authorZIEHN, Tilo
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-24T09:14:38Z
dc.date.available2022-11-24T09:14:38Z
dc.date.issued2022-09-16
dc.identifier.issn2624-9553en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/170369
dc.description.abstractEnMulti-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme eventsen_US
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/*
dc.subject.enDecadal climate
dc.subject.enAttribution
dc.subject.enExternal forcings
dc.subject.enLarge ensembles
dc.subject.enModel intercomparison
dc.subject.enLighthouse Activity
dc.title.enAttribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fclim.2022.955414en_US
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnementen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeConstraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projectionsen_US
bordeaux.journalFrontiers in Climateen_US
bordeaux.volume4en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
hal.identifierhal-03815311
hal.version1
hal.exportfalse
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Frontiers%20in%20Climate&rft.date=2022-09-16&rft.volume=4&rft.eissn=2624-9553&rft.issn=2624-9553&rft.au=SMITH,%20Doug%20M.&GILLETT,%20Nathan%20P.&SIMPSON,%20Isla%20R.&ATHANASIADIS,%20Panos&BAEHR,%20Johanna&rft.genre=article


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