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The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

hal.structure.identifierAustrian Research Centre for Forests [BFW]
dc.contributor.authorCICEU, Albert
hal.structure.identifierNational Forestry Research-Development Institute Marin Dracea [INCDS]
dc.contributor.authorBĂLĂCENOIU, Flavius
hal.structure.identifierSlovenian Forestry Institute
dc.contributor.authorDE GROOT, Maarten
hal.structure.identifierAustrian Research Centre for Forests [BFW]
dc.contributor.authorCHAKRABORTY, Debojyoti
hal.structure.identifierEllinikos Georgikos OrGanismos-DIMITRA [ELGO -DIMITRA]
dc.contributor.authorAVTZIS, Dimitrios
hal.structure.identifierSlovak Academy of Sciences [SAS]
dc.contributor.authorBARTA, Marek
hal.structure.identifierSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
dc.contributor.authorBLASER, Simon
hal.structure.identifierUniversità degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence [UniFI]
dc.contributor.authorBRACALINI, Matteo
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorCASTAGNEYROL, Bastien
hal.structure.identifierUniversity Skaya Naberezhnaya
dc.contributor.authorCHERNOVA, Ulyana
hal.structure.identifierAgricultural University of Tirana
dc.contributor.authorÇOTA, Ejup
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of West Hungary [Sopron]
dc.contributor.authorCSÓKA, György
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Sarajevo [UNSA]
dc.contributor.authorDAUTBASIC, Mirza
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Belgrade
dc.contributor.authorGLAVENDEKIC, Milka
hal.structure.identifierUniversity Skaya Naberezhnaya
dc.contributor.authorGNINENKO, Yuri
hal.structure.identifierAustrian Research Centre for Forests [BFW]
dc.contributor.authorHOCH, Gernot
dc.contributor.authorHRADIL, Karel
hal.structure.identifierUniversität Hamburg = University of Hamburg [UHH]
dc.contributor.authorHUSEMANN, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMESHKOVA, Valentyna
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Sarajevo [UNSA]
dc.contributor.authorMUJEZINOVIC, Osman
hal.structure.identifierAbant Izzet Baysal University - Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi
dc.contributor.authorMUTUN, Serap
dc.contributor.authorPANZAVOLTA, Tiziana
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of West Hungary [Sopron]
dc.contributor.authorPAULIN, Márton
dc.contributor.authorRIBA-FLINCH, Josep
dc.contributor.authorSIMOV, Nikolay
dc.contributor.authorSOTIROVSKI, Kiril
dc.contributor.authorVASILCIUC, Serghei
hal.structure.identifierNational Forestry Center
dc.contributor.authorZÚBRIK, Milan
dc.contributor.authorSCHUELER, Silvio
dc.date.issued2024-11
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.description.abstractEnIn recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
dc.subject.enBiological invasion
dc.subject.enInvasive species
dc.subject.enSpecies distribution model
dc.subject.enOak pest
dc.subject.enBiodiversity impact
dc.subject.enEuropean oak forest
dc.title.enThe ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
bordeaux.journalScience of the Total Environment
bordeaux.page174950
bordeaux.volume949
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04806258
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04806258v1
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