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A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierNCAS-Climate [Reading]
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Pablo
hal.structure.identifierUniversität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne [UNIBE]
dc.contributor.authorLEHNER, Flavio
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
hal.structure.identifierGlaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables [GLACCIOS]
dc.contributor.authorMASSON-DELMOTTE, Valérie
dc.contributor.authorRAIBLE, Christoph
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
dc.contributor.authorCASADO, Mathieu
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
hal.structure.identifierExtrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation [ESTIMR]
dc.contributor.authorYIOU, Pascal
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-03T08:55:39Z
dc.date.available2024-06-03T08:55:39Z
dc.date.issued2015-07-01
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/200208
dc.description.abstractEnThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks1, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance2, renewable energy production3, crop yields4 and water management5. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions6, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction7 spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi‐proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enA model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/nature14518en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Océan, Atmosphèreen_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Interfaces continentales, environnementen_US
bordeaux.journalNatureen_US
bordeaux.page71 - 74en_US
bordeaux.volume523en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue7558en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-01806191
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.date=2015-07-01&rft.volume=523&rft.issue=7558&rft.spage=71%20-%2074&rft.epage=71%20-%2074&rft.eissn=0028-0836&rft.issn=0028-0836&rft.au=ORTEGA,%20Pablo&LEHNER,%20Flavio&SWINGEDOUW,%20Didier&MASSON-DELMOTTE,%20Val%C3%A9rie&RAIBLE,%20Christoph&rft.genre=article


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