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hal.structure.identifierInstitut Polytechnique de Bordeaux [Bordeaux INP]
hal.structure.identifierInstitut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux [IMB]
dc.contributor.authorCOLLIN, Annabelle
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
hal.structure.identifierVaccine Research Institute [Créteil, France] [VRI]
dc.contributor.authorHEJBLUM, Boris P.
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
hal.structure.identifierVaccine Research Institute [Créteil, France] [VRI]
dc.contributor.authorVIGNALS, Carole
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
hal.structure.identifierVaccine Research Institute [Créteil, France] [VRI]
dc.contributor.authorLEHOT, Laurent
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
hal.structure.identifierVaccine Research Institute [Créteil, France] [VRI]
dc.contributor.authorTHIÉBAUT, Rodolphe
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorMOIREAU, Philippe
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire de mécanique des solides [LMS]
hal.structure.identifierInstitut Polytechnique de Paris [IP Paris]
dc.contributor.authorPRAGUE, Mélanie
dc.date2023
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-04T02:33:37Z
dc.date.available2024-04-04T02:33:37Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.issn2194-573X
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/190497
dc.description.abstractEnIn response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments are taking a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These measures include interventions as stringent as strict lockdown but also school closure, bar and restaurant closure, curfews and barrier gestures i.e . social distancing. Disentangling the effectiveness of each NPI is crucial to inform response to future outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a multi-level estimation of the French COVID-19 epidemic over a period of one year. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of the infection including a dynamical (over time) transmission rate containing a Wiener process accounting for modeling error. Random effects are integrated following an innovative population approach based on a Kalman-type filter where the log-likelihood functional couples data across French regions. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model depending on NPI, while accounting for vaccination coverage, apparition of variants of concern (VoC) and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPI considered have an independent significant effect on the transmission rate. We additionally demonstrate a strong effect from weather conditions which decrease transmission during the summer period, and also estimate increased transmissibility of VoCs.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherDe Gruyter
dc.subject.enCOVID-19
dc.subject.enEpidemic modeling
dc.subject.enKalman filters
dc.subject.enNon-pharmaceutical interventions
dc.subject.enPopulation estimation
dc.title.enUsing Population Based Kalman Estimator to Model COVID-19 Epidemic in France: Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics of Epidemic
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1515/ijb-2022-0087
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Médecine humaine et pathologie/Maladies émergentes
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Médecine humaine et pathologie/Maladies infectieuses
dc.subject.halStatistiques [stat]/Applications [stat.AP]
bordeaux.journalThe international journal of biostatistics
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInstitut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) - UMR 5251*
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeaux
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux INP
bordeaux.institutionCNRS
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04151651
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04151651v1
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