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hal.structure.identifierInstitut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux [IMB]
dc.contributor.authorGERVILLE-RÉACHE, Léo
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-04T02:19:50Z
dc.date.available2024-04-04T02:19:50Z
dc.date.created2014-02-01
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/189439
dc.description.abstractEnWe analyze the main arguments that attempt to explain why there is no point in changing the envelope. Most people confuse estimation and calculation, conditional and unconditional probabilities, random and non-random variables, modelling and reality, chance and uncertainty (or credence), whatever X known and whatever X unknown, personal and interpersonal estimates. Such confusions suggest that there would be no point in swapping the envelope. Our analysis is that if the first envelope is opened, whatever the amount, it is rational and consistent to think that it is worth changing it. If the first envelope is not opened, it is rational and consistent to believe there is no point in swapping the envelope.
dc.language.isoen
dc.title.enWhy do we change whatever amount we found in the first envelope: the Wikipedia "two envelopes problem" commented
dc.typeDocument de travail - Pré-publication
dc.subject.halMathématiques [math]/Statistiques [math.ST]
dc.subject.halStatistiques [stat]/Théorie [stat.TH]
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInstitut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) - UMR 5251*
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeaux
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux INP
bordeaux.institutionCNRS
hal.identifierhal-00943573
hal.version1
hal.audienceNon spécifiée
dc.subject.esParadox
dc.subject.esTwo envelopes
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-00943573v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.au=GERVILLE-R%C3%89ACHE,%20L%C3%A9o&rft.genre=preprint


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