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Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorLE COZANNET, Gonéri
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorBULTEAU, Thomas
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorCASTELLE, Bruno
IDREF: 087596520
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Twente
dc.contributor.authorRANASINGHE, Roshanka
hal.structure.identifierLIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés [LIENSs]
dc.contributor.authorWOPPELMANN, Guy
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorROHMER, Jeremy
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorBERNON, Nicolas
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorLOUISOR, Jessie
hal.structure.identifierCentre national de recherches météorologiques [CNRM]
dc.contributor.authorSALAS-Y-MÉLIA, David
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorIDIER, Déborah
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-29T08:32:14Z
dc.date.available2024-02-29T08:32:14Z
dc.date.issued2019-12
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188499
dc.description.abstractEnSandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40% of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting sandy beaches that are relatively unaffected by human interventions in southwestern France, where a variance-based global sensitivity analysis of shoreline projection uncertainties can be performed owing to previous observations of beach profile and shoreline changes. This means that sustained coastal observations and efforts to develop sea-level rise impact models are needed to understand and eventually reduce uncertainties of shoreline change projections, in order to ultimately support coastal land-use planning and adaptation.
dc.description.sponsorshipMarier les objectifs de défense côtière avec ceux de la protection du milieu naturel grâce aux dunes sableuses - ANR-17-CE01-0014en_US
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/*
dc.title.enQuantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terreen_US
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnementen_US
bordeaux.journalScientific Reportsen_US
bordeaux.volume9en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue1en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamMETHYSen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-02182686
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Scientific%20Reports&rft.date=2019-12&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=1&rft.eissn=2045-2322&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.au=LE%20COZANNET,%20Gon%C3%A9ri&BULTEAU,%20Thomas&CASTELLE,%20Bruno&RANASINGHE,%20Roshanka&WOPPELMANN,%20Guy&rft.genre=article


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