LE COZANNET, Gonéri; BULTEAU, Thomas; CASTELLE, Bruno; RANASINGHE, Roshanka; WOPPELMANN, Guy; ROHMER, Jeremy; BERNON, Nicolas; LOUISOR, Jessie; SALAS-Y-MÉLIA, David; IDIER, Déborah

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4

LE COZANNET, Gonéri
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]

BULTEAU, Thomas
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]

CASTELLE, Bruno

Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]

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Article de revue

Ce document a été publié dans

Scientific Reports. 2019-12, vol. 9, n° 1

Résumé en anglais

Sandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40% of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting sandy beaches that are relatively unaffected by human interventions in southwestern France, where a variance-based global sensitivity analysis of shoreline projection uncertainties can be performed owing to previous observations of beach profile and shoreline changes. This means that sustained coastal observations and efforts to develop sea-level rise impact models are needed to understand and eventually reduce uncertainties of shoreline change projections, in order to ultimately support coastal land-use planning and adaptation.< Réduire

URI

https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188499

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4

Project ANR

Marier les objectifs de défense côtière avec ceux de la protection du milieu naturel grâce aux dunes sableuses - ANR-17-CE01-0014

Unités de recherche

EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805

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Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises

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Résumé en anglais

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DOI

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