Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
| dc.contributor.author | BORCHERT, Leonard F. | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
| dc.contributor.author | MENARY, Matthew | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC] | |
| dc.contributor.author | SWINGEDOUW, Didier | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC] | |
| dc.contributor.author | SGUBIN, Giovanni | |
| hal.structure.identifier | United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter] | |
| dc.contributor.author | HERMANSON, Leon | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
| dc.contributor.author | MIGNOT, Juliette | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-14T14:18:55Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-02-14T14:18:55Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-01-28 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188134 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage - ANR-17-EQPX-0001 | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.subject.en | climate prediction | |
| dc.subject.en | CMIP5 | |
| dc.subject.en | CMIP6 | |
| dc.subject.en | North Atlantic | |
| dc.subject.en | subpolar gyre | |
| dc.title.en | Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 | |
| dc.title.alternative | Geophys. Res. Lett.. | en_US |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1029/2020gl091307 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences de l'environnement | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Océanographie | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorshipEurope | European Climate Prediction system | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorshipEurope | Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | Geophysical Research Letters | en_US |
| bordeaux.page | e2020GL091307 | en_US |
| bordeaux.volume | 48 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805 | en_US |
| bordeaux.issue | 3 | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | CNRS | en_US |
| bordeaux.team | PALEO | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| bordeaux.import.source | hal | |
| hal.identifier | hal-03167381 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.popular | non | en_US |
| hal.audience | Internationale | en_US |
| hal.export | false | |
| workflow.import.source | hal | |
| dc.rights.cc | CC BY-NC | en_US |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Geophysical%20Research%20Letters&rft.date=2021-01-28&rft.volume=48&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=e2020GL091307&rft.epage=e2020GL091307&rft.eissn=0094-8276&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.au=BORCHERT,%20Leonard%20F.&MENARY,%20Matthew&SWINGEDOUW,%20Didier&SGUBIN,%20Giovanni&HERMANSON,%20Leon&rft.genre=article |
