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Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change

hal.structure.identifierSkogforsk - Forestry Research Institute of Sweden
dc.contributor.authorHALLINGBÄCK, Henrik
hal.structure.identifierForest Research [Great Britain]
dc.contributor.authorBURTON, Vanessa
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorVIZCAÍNO-PALOMAR, Natalia
hal.structure.identifierForest Research [Great Britain]
dc.contributor.authorTROTTER, Felix
hal.structure.identifierSkogforsk - Forestry Research Institute of Sweden
dc.contributor.authorLIZINIEWICZ, Mateusz
hal.structure.identifierIstituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse [IBBR]
dc.contributor.authorMARCHI, Maurizio
hal.structure.identifierSkogforsk - Forestry Research Institute of Sweden
dc.contributor.authorBERLIN, Mats
hal.structure.identifierForest Research [Great Britain]
dc.contributor.authorRAY, Duncan
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorBENITO-GARZÓN, Marta
dc.date.issued2021-11-12
dc.identifier.issn2296-701X
dc.description.abstractEnForests provide important ecosystem services and renewable materials. Yet, under a future climate, optimal conditions will likely shift outside the current range for some tree species. This will challenge the persistence of populations to rely on inherent plasticity and genetic diversity to acclimate or adapt to future uncertain conditions. An opportunity to study such processes is offered by Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.), a forest tree with a large distribution range including populations locally adapted to a wide variety of environments, which hinders a range-wide assessment of the species to climate change. Here we evaluate tree height growth uncertainty of Scots pine marginal populations in Spain and the Nordic countries linked to their genetic adaptation promoted by different climatic drivers. Our aims are to: (i) review the main climatic drivers of Scots pine adaptation across its range; (ii) undertake provenance-based modeling and prediction of tree height under current and future climate scenarios including four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and five general circulation models (GCMs) at two extremes of its climatic niche; (iii) estimate uncertainty in population tree height linked to the main drivers of local adaptation that may change among RCPs and GCMs in the Nordic countries and Spain. Our models revealed that tree height adaptation is mostly driven by drought in Spain and by photoperiod in the Nordic countries, whereas the literature review also highlighted temperature as a climatic driver for the Nordic region. Model predictions for the Nordic countries showed an overall increase in tree height but with high uncertainty in magnitude depending on the RCPs and GCMs whereas predictions for Spain showed tree height to be maintained in the north and reduced in the south, but with similar magnitudes among RCPs and GCMs. Both models predicted tree height outside the data range used to develop the models (extrapolation). Predictions using higher emission RCPs resulted in larger extrapolated areas, constituting a further source of uncertainty. An expanded network of Scots pine field trials throughout Europe, facilitated by data collection and international research collaboration, would limit the need for uncertain predictions based on extrapolation.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherFrontiers Media S.A
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
dc.subject.enadaptation
dc.subject.entree height
dc.subject.enmixed-effect models
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.enSpain
dc.subject.enNordic countries of Europe
dc.subject.enprovenance
dc.subject.enPinus sylvestris (L.)
dc.title.enManaging Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fevo.2021.724051
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement/Biodiversité et Ecologie
bordeaux.journalFrontiers in Ecology and Evolution
bordeaux.volume9
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04123436
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04123436v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Frontiers%20in%20Ecology%20and%20Evolution&rft.date=2021-11-12&rft.volume=9&rft.eissn=2296-701X&rft.issn=2296-701X&rft.au=HALLINGB%C3%84CK,%20Henrik&BURTON,%20Vanessa&VIZCA%C3%8DNO-PALOMAR,%20Natalia&TROTTER,%20Felix&LIZINIEWICZ,%20Mateusz&rft.genre=article


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