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hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire Ondes et Matière d'Aquitaine [LOMA]
dc.contributor.authorMEUEL, Tinihau
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire Ondes et Matière d'Aquitaine [LOMA]
dc.contributor.authorPRADO, Gaël
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire Ondes et Matière d'Aquitaine [LOMA]
dc.contributor.authorKELLAY, Hamid
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon [Phys-ENS]
dc.contributor.authorSEYCHELLES, Fanny
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Informatique et de Mathématiques [LIM]
dc.contributor.authorBESSAFI, Miloud
dc.date.created2012-02-13
dc.date.issued2012
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.description.abstractEnTrajectories of tropical cyclones may show large deviations from predicted tracks leading to uncertainty as to their landfall location for example. Prediction schemes usually render this uncertainty by showing track forecast cones representing the most probable region for the location of a cyclone during a period of time. By using the statistical properties of these deviations, we propose a simple method to predict possible corridors for the future trajectory of a cyclone. Examples of this scheme are implemented for hurricane Ike and hurricane Jimena. The corridors include the future trajectory up to at least 50 h before landfall. The cones proposed here shed new light on known track forecast cones as they link them directly to the statistics of these deviations.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/
dc.title.enHurricane track forecast cones from fluctuations
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/srep00446
dc.subject.halPhysique [physics]/Physique [physics]/Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Océan, Atmosphère
bordeaux.journalScientific Reports
bordeaux.page446
bordeaux.volume2
bordeaux.issue1
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-00708481
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-00708481v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Scientific%20Reports&rft.date=2012&rft.volume=2&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=446&rft.epage=446&rft.eissn=2045-2322&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.au=MEUEL,%20Tinihau&PRADO,%20Ga%C3%ABl&KELLAY,%20Hamid&SEYCHELLES,%20Fanny&BESSAFI,%20Miloud&rft.genre=article


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