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Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie

hal.structure.identifierCentre Émile Durkheim [CED]
dc.contributor.authorLE HÉRON, Edwin
hal.structure.identifierIÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]
dc.contributor.authorMAROUANE, Amine
dc.contributor.editorJean-Paul Domin (dir.)
dc.date.issued2021-07
dc.identifier.isbn978-2-406-11904-3
dc.identifier.issn0013-0494
dc.description.abstractDes évènements aussi extrêmes qu'une révolution, une pandémie mondiale ou des attentats terroristes constituent des chocs politiques susceptibles d'impacter considérablement la confiance et la croissance économique. La Tunisie pour qui l'activité touristique est essentielle, vient de connaître ces trois évènements dont l'impact économique a été bien plus considérable que la crise économique de 2008. Cet article cherche à reproduire les faits stylisés observés en Tunisie à partir d'une modélisation stock-flux cohérente post keynésienne et d’un indice de confiance, puis de fournir des prévisions de l'impact économique de chocs exogènes.
dc.description.abstractEnSuch extreme events as a revolution, a global pandemic, or terrorist attacks are political shocks that can significantly impact confidence and economic growth. Tunisia, for which tourism is crucial, has recently undergone a revolution in 2011, two terrorist attacks in 2015, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of these political events is much greater than that of the economic crisis of 2008. Using a post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent model, the aim of this paper is to reproduce the stylized facts since 2008. We first build a confidence index, then we try to provide forecasts of the economic impact of exogenous shocks
dc.language.isofr
dc.publisherClassiques Garnier
dc.publisher.locationParis
dc.source.titleÉconomie Appliquée
dc.subjectModélisation stock-flux cohérente
dc.subjectsimulation
dc.subjectconfiance
dc.subjectchoc exogène
dc.subjectcrise économique
dc.subjectCovid19
dc.subjectTunisie
dc.subject.enSFC modeling
dc.subject.enexperiments
dc.subject.enconfidence
dc.subject.enexogenous shock
dc.subject.eneconomic crisis
dc.subject.enCOVID-19
dc.subject.enTunisia
dc.titleImpacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie
dc.title.enPolitical shocks and economic growth. The case of Tunisia
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.48611/isbn.978-2-406-11904-3.p.0159
dc.subject.halSciences de l'Homme et Société/Science politique
dc.subject.halSciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
dc.subject.jelE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E12 - Keynes • Keynesian • Post-Keynesian
dc.subject.jelE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit/E.E5.E52 - Monetary Policy
dc.subject.jelE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
dc.subject.jelF - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
dc.subject.jelO - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
dc.subject.jelO - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O5 - Economywide Country Studies/O.O5.O55 - Africa
bordeaux.journalEconomie appliquée
bordeaux.page159-187
bordeaux.issue1
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhalshs-03412949
hal.version1
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//halshs-03412949v1
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