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A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Freiburg [Freiburg]
dc.contributor.authorYOUSEFPOUR, Rasoul
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems [ITES]
hal.structure.identifierSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
dc.contributor.authorTEMPERLI, Christian
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet [UCPH]
dc.contributor.authorJACOBSEN, Jette Bredahl
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet [UCPH]
dc.contributor.authorTHORSEN, Bo Jellesmark
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet [UCPH]
dc.contributor.authorMEILBY, Henrik
hal.structure.identifierUniversität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche] [BOKU]
dc.contributor.authorLEXER, Manfred J.
hal.structure.identifierEuropean Forest Institute [EFI]
dc.contributor.authorLINDNER, Marcus
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems [ITES]
dc.contributor.authorBUGMANN, Harald
hal.structure.identifierForest Research Centre, School of Agriculture
dc.contributor.authorBORGES, Jose G.
hal.structure.identifierForest Research Centre, School of Agriculture
dc.contributor.authorPALMA, Joao H. N.
hal.structure.identifierForest Research [Great Britain]
dc.contributor.authorRAY, Duncan
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems [ITES]
hal.structure.identifierSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
dc.contributor.authorZIMMERMANN, Niklaus E.
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorDELZON, Sylvain
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorKREMER, Antoine
hal.structure.identifierWageningen University and Research Centre [WUR]
dc.contributor.authorKRAMER, Koen
hal.structure.identifierPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [PIK]
dc.contributor.authorREYER, Christopher P. O.
hal.structure.identifierPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [PIK]
dc.contributor.authorLASCH-BORN, Petra
hal.structure.identifierForest Research Centre, School of Agriculture
hal.structure.identifierCentre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya [CTFC]
dc.contributor.authorGARCIA-GONZALO, Jordi
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Freiburg [Freiburg]
dc.contributor.authorHANEWINKEL, Marc
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn1708-3087
dc.description.abstractEnAdapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherResilience Alliance
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
dc.subjectEurope
dc.subject.enbehavioral adaptation
dc.subject.enforest management
dc.subject.enknowledge management
dc.subject.enmathematical programming
dc.subject.enprocess-based models
dc.subject.enspatial planning
dc.title.enA framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.5751/ES-09614-220440
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]
bordeaux.journalEcology and Society
bordeaux.page1-25
bordeaux.volume22
bordeaux.issue4
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02624052
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02624052v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Ecology%20and%20Society&rft.date=2017&rft.volume=22&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=1-25&rft.epage=1-25&rft.eissn=1708-3087&rft.issn=1708-3087&rft.au=YOUSEFPOUR,%20Rasoul&TEMPERLI,%20Christian&JACOBSEN,%20Jette%20Bredahl&THORSEN,%20Bo%20Jellesmark&MEILBY,%20Henrik&rft.genre=article


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