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Field evidence of colonisation by holm oak, at the northern margin of its distribution range, during the anthropocene period

hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorDELZON, Sylvain
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorURLI, Morgane
hal.structure.identifierÉcologie fonctionnelle et physique de l'environnement [EPHYSE]
dc.contributor.authorSAMALENS, Jean-Charles
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorLAMY, Jean-Baptiste
hal.structure.identifierSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
dc.contributor.authorLISCHKE, Heike
hal.structure.identifierOffice national des forêts [ONF]
dc.contributor.authorSIN, Fabrice
hal.structure.identifierSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
dc.contributor.authorZIMMERMANN, Niklaus E.
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorPORTE A.J., Annabel
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.description.abstractEnA major unknown in the context of current climate change is the extent to which populations of slowly migrating species, such as trees, will track shifting climates. Niche modelling generally predicts substantial northward shifts of suitable habitats. There is therefore an urgent need for field-based forest observations to corroborate these extensive model simulations. We used forest inventory data providing presence/absence information from just over a century (1880–2010) for a Mediterranean species (Quercus ilex) in forests located at the northern edge of its distribution. The main goals of the study were (i) to investigate whether this species has actually spread into new areas during the Anthropocene period and (ii) to provide a direct estimation of tree migration rate. We show that Q. ilex has colonised substantial new areas over the last century. However, the maximum rate of colonisation by this species (22 to 57 m/year) was much slower than predicted by the models and necessary to follow changes in habitat suitability since 1880. Our results suggest that the rates of tree dispersion and establishment may also be too low to track shifts in bioclimatic envelopes in the future. The inclusion of contemporary, rather than historical, migration rates into models should improve our understanding of the response of species to climate change.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.title.enField evidence of colonisation by holm oak, at the northern margin of its distribution range, during the anthropocene period
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0080443
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
bordeaux.journalPLoS ONE
bordeaux.page8 p.
bordeaux.volume8
bordeaux.issue11
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02648198
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02648198v1
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