Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | TELLIER, Eric | |
| dc.contributor.author | SIMONNET, Bruno | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | GIL-JARDINE, Cedric
ORCID: 0000-0001-5329-6405 IDREF: 159039223 | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | BAILHACHE, Marion | |
| dc.contributor.author | CASTELLE, Bruno
IDREF: 087596520 | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | SALMI, Louis Rachid | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-10T12:48:15Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-05-10T12:48:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-01-21 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1475-5785 (Electronic) 1353-8047 (Linking) | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27228 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | OBJECTIVE: To predict the coast-wide risk of drowning along the surf beaches of Gironde, southwestern France. METHODS: Data on rescues and drownings were collected from the Medical Emergency Center of Gironde (SAMU 33). Seasonality, holidays, weekends, weather and metocean conditions were considered potentially predictive. Logistic regression models were fitted with data from 2011 to 2013 and used to predict 2015-2017 events employing weather and ocean forecasts. RESULTS: Air temperature, wave parameters, seasonality and holidays were associated with drownings. Prospective validation was performed on 617 days, covering 232 events (rescues and drownings) reported on 104 different days. The area under the curve (AUC) of the daily risk prediction model (combined with 3-day forecasts) was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86). The AUC of the 3-hour step model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Drowning events along the Gironde surf coast can be anticipated up to 3 days in advance. Preventative messages and rescue preparations could be increased as the forecast risk increased, especially during the off-peak season, when the number of available rescuers is low. | |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.title.en | Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France | |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1136/injuryprev-2020-044092 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie | en_US |
| dc.identifier.pubmed | 33692084 | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | Injury Prevention | en_US |
| bordeaux.page | 16-22 | |
| bordeaux.volume | 28 | |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219 | en_US |
| bordeaux.issue | 1 | |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | INSERM | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | CNRS | |
| bordeaux.team | IETO | en_US |
| bordeaux.team | AHEAD_BPH | |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| hal.identifier | hal-03222781 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.date.transferred | 2021-05-10T12:48:19Z | |
| hal.export | true | |
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