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Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
dc.contributor.authorGILBERT, M.
dc.contributor.authorPULLANO, G.
dc.contributor.authorPINOTTI, F.
dc.contributor.authorVALDANO, E.
dc.contributor.authorPOLETTO, C.
dc.contributor.authorBOELLE, P. Y.
dc.contributor.authorD'ORTENZIO, E.
dc.contributor.authorYAZDANPANAH, Y.
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorEHOLIE, Serge Paul
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorALTMANN, Mathias
dc.contributor.authorGUTIERREZ, B.
dc.contributor.authorKRAEMER, M. U. G.
dc.contributor.authorCOLIZZA, V.
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-26T12:39:25Z
dc.date.available2021-01-26T12:39:25Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn1474-547X (Electronic) 0140-6736 (Linking)en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/26012
dc.description.abstractEnBackground The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19. Methods We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. Findings Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. Interpretation Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.subjectIDLIC
dc.title.enPreparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
dc.title.alternativeLanceten_US
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30411-6en_US
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieen_US
bordeaux.journalThe Lanceten_US
bordeaux.page871-877en_US
bordeaux.volume395en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesBordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - U1219en_US
bordeaux.issue10227en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.teamIDLICen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
hal.exportfalse
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