Development and validation of a model predicting post-traumatic headache six months after a motor vehicle collision in adults
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | CANCELLIERE, Carol | |
| dc.contributor.author | BOYLE, Eleanor | |
| dc.contributor.author | COTE, Pierre | |
| dc.contributor.author | HOLM, Lena W. | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | SALMI, Louis Rachid | |
| dc.contributor.author | CASSIDY, J. David | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-18T14:18:13Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-01-18T14:18:13Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0001-4575 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/25832 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | Importance The prognosis of post-traumatic headache is poorly understood. Objective To develop and validate a prognostic model to predict the presence of post-traumatic headache six months after a traffic collision in adults with incident post-traumatic headache. Design Secondary analyses of adults with incident post-traumatic headache injured in traffic collisions between November 1997 and December 1999 in Saskatchewan, Canada (development cohort); and between January 2004 and January 2005 in Sweden (validation cohort). Setting The Saskatchewan cohort (development) was population-based (N = 4162). The Swedish cohort (validation) (N = 379) were claimants from two insurance companies covering 20 % of cars driven in Sweden in 2004. Participants All adults injured in traffic collisions who completed a baseline questionnaire within 30 days of collision. Excluded were those hospitalized >2 days, lost consciousness >30 min, or reported headache <3/10 on the numerical rating scale. Follow-up rates for both cohorts were approximately 80 %. Predictors Baseline sociodemographic, pre-injury, and injury factors. Outcome Self-reported headache pain intensity ≥3 (numerical rating scale) six months after injury. Results Both cohorts were predominantly female (69.7 % in Saskatchewan, 65.2 % in Sweden), with median ages 35.9 years (Saskatchewan), and 38.0 years (Sweden). Predictors were age, work status, headache pain intensity, symptoms in arms or hands, dizziness or unsteadiness, stiffness in neck, pre-existing headache, and lower recovery expectations. With a positive score (i.e., ≥0.75 probability), the model can rule in the presence of post-traumatic headache at six months (development: specificity = 99.8 %, 95 % CI 99.5 %–99.9 %; sensitivity = 1.6 %, 95 % CI 1.0 %–2.6 %; positive likelihood ratio (LR+) = 8.0, 95 % CI 2.7−24.1; negative likelihood ratio (LR-) = 1.0, 95 % CI 1.0−1.0; validation: specificity = 95.5 %, 95 % CI 91.1 %–97.8 %; sensitivity = 27.2 %, 95 % CI 20.4 %–35.2 %); LR+ = 6.0, 95 % CI 2.8−13.2; LR- = 0.8, 95 % CI 0.7−0.8). Conclusions and relevance Clinicians can collect patient information on the eight predictors of our model to identify patients that will report ongoing post-traumatic headache six months after a traffic collision. Future research should focus on selecting patients at high risk of poor outcomes (using our model) for inclusion in intervention studies, and determining effective interventions for these patients. | |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.subject | IETO | |
| dc.title.en | Development and validation of a model predicting post-traumatic headache six months after a motor vehicle collision in adults | |
| dc.title.alternative | Accid Anal Prev | en_US |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105580 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie | en_US |
| dc.identifier.pubmed | 32445970 | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | Accid Anal Prev | en_US |
| bordeaux.page | 105580 | en_US |
| bordeaux.volume | 142 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - U1219 | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.team | IETO | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| hal.identifier | hal-03113706 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.date.transferred | 2021-01-18T14:18:16Z | |
| hal.export | true | |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Accid%20Anal%20Prev&rft.date=2020&rft.volume=142&rft.spage=105580&rft.epage=105580&rft.eissn=0001-4575&rft.issn=0001-4575&rft.au=CANCELLIERE,%20Carol&BOYLE,%20Eleanor&COTE,%20Pierre&HOLM,%20Lena%20W.&SALMI,%20Louis%20Rachid&rft.genre=article |
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