“You Can't Always Get What You Want”: Middle‐Class Expectations and Incomplete Social Contracts in the Global South

Abstract

ABSTRACTOver the past decade, much of the global middle class has become more vulnerable and disillusioned. Drawing on original qualitative surveys in Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Turkey, and Vietnam, this paper reveals a persistent disconnect between middle‐class expectations and government policy in the core domains of the social contract: public services, social protection, and participation. On the demand side, middle‐class respondents report frustration with poor service provision—particularly in education, health, and security—and with tax systems, they perceive as burdensome yet unreciprocated. On the supply side, policymakers emphasize market access and credit expansion while retreating from broad‐based public support, a pattern we term “laissez‐faire paternalism.” Despite their dissatisfaction, middle‐class citizens often remain politically disengaged due to fragmentation and institutional barriers, producing a form of “truncated citizenship” in which they enjoy consumption rights but lack political influence. These findings challenge the assumption that middle‐class growth naturally drives reform. Instead, we find a fragmented and politically instrumentalized group with limited capacity to press for change. By contrasting demand‐ and supply‐side perceptions, the paper uncovers institutional blind spots and warns of rising frustration and instability if governance does not become more inclusive and responsive.