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Warmer and brighter winters than before: Ecological and public health challenges from the expansion of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa)

hal.structure.identifierCentre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations [UMR CBGP]
dc.contributor.authorROSSI, Jean-Pierre
hal.structure.identifierUniversità degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua [Unipd]
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and Environment [DAFNAE]
dc.contributor.authorBATTISTI, Andrea
hal.structure.identifierHellenic Agricultural Organization Demeter [HAO Demeter]
dc.contributor.authorAVTZIS, Dimitrios
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorBURBAN, Christian
hal.structure.identifierBiotechnology High National School Taoufik Khaznadar
dc.contributor.authorRAHIM, Noureddine
hal.structure.identifierZoologie forestière [URZF]
dc.contributor.authorROUSSELET, Jérôme
hal.structure.identifierCentre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations [UMR CBGP]
dc.contributor.authorKERDELHUÉ, Carole
hal.structure.identifierHacettepe University = Hacettepe Üniversitesi
dc.contributor.authorİPEKDAL, Kahraman
dc.date.issued2025-05-25
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.description.abstractEnHighlights: • We model the geographic range of the pine processionary moth (PPM). • Three species distribution models are constructed using tree-based methods. • Interpretable machine learning reveals climate variables limiting the PPM's distribution. • A significant northward expansion is projected for the coming decades. • A contraction of suitable regions is expected in North Africa by 2040–2060.Abstract: Assessing the species ecological responses to ongoing climate change is a critical challenge in environmental science. Rising temperatures, particularly in winter, are altering the distribution patterns of many species, including the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffermuller, 1775). This Mediterranean species, a significant defoliator of conifers, is expanding its range northward as winter temperatures increase. The larvae of PPM also pose serious public health risks due to their ability to induce allergic reactions in humans, pets, and livestock. To better understand these ecological shifts, we calibrated three distribution models (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, Boosted Regression Trees, and Random Forest) based on historical and modern occurrence data compiling of 1769 points, and assessed climate suitability under historical, current and future conditions. Our results show that winter minimum temperatures, summer maximum temperatures, and solar radiation significantly influence the life cycle, and shape the geographical distribution of PPM. Under current conditions, PPM could extend its range further north, but its limited flight capabilities hinder its ability to keep up with the pace of climate change. Future projections suggest continued northward expansion, although solar radiation is expected to limit the northernmost range of PPM. Certain host tree species of PPM are frequently used as ornamental plants, particularly in urban areas, which makes the careful selection of these species a potentially valuable tool for management. Our findings identify regions that are likely to become suitable for PPM colonization, where proactive measures could be implemented.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.subject.enClimate change
dc.subject.enSpecies range shift
dc.subject.enSpecies distribution modeling
dc.subject.enHealth risk
dc.subject.enForest pest
dc.title.enWarmer and brighter winters than before: Ecological and public health challenges from the expansion of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa)
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179470
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
dc.subject.halInformatique [cs]/Apprentissage [cs.LG]
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement/Environnement et Société
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Ecologie, Environnement
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Microbiologie et Parasitologie/Parasitologie
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
dc.subject.halÉconomie et finance quantitative [q-fin]/Gestion des risques [q-fin.RM]
bordeaux.journalScience of the Total Environment
bordeaux.page179470
bordeaux.volume978
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-05054582
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-05054582v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Science%20of%20the%20Total%20Environment&rft.date=2025-05-25&rft.volume=978&rft.spage=179470&rft.epage=179470&rft.eissn=0048-9697&rft.issn=0048-9697&rft.au=ROSSI,%20Jean-Pierre&BATTISTI,%20Andrea&AVTZIS,%20Dimitrios&BURBAN,%20Christian&RAHIM,%20Noureddine&rft.genre=article


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