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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
dc.contributor.authorWUNDERLING, Nico
dc.contributor.authorVON DER HEYDT, Anna
dc.contributor.authorAKSENOV, Yevgeny
dc.contributor.authorBARKER, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorBASTIAANSEN, Robbin
dc.contributor.authorBROVKIN, Victor
dc.contributor.authorBRUNETTI, Maura
dc.contributor.authorCOUPLET, Victor
dc.contributor.authorKLEINEN, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorLEAR, Caroline
dc.contributor.authorLOHMANN, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorROMAN-CUESTA, Rosa
dc.contributor.authorSINET, Sacha
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
dc.contributor.authorWINKELMANN, Ricarda
dc.contributor.authorANAND, Pallavi
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
hal.structure.identifierModélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales [MOSAIC]
dc.contributor.authorBARICHIVICH, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorBATHIANY, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorBAUDENA, Mara
dc.contributor.authorBRUUN, John
dc.contributor.authorCHIESSI, Cristiano
dc.contributor.authorCOXALL, Helen
dc.contributor.authorDOCQUIER, David
dc.contributor.authorDONGES, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorFALKENA, Swinda
dc.contributor.authorKLOSE, Ann
dc.contributor.authorOBURA, David
dc.contributor.authorROCHA, Juan
dc.contributor.authorRYNDERS, Stefanie
dc.contributor.authorSTEINERT, Norman
dc.contributor.authorWILLEIT, Matteo
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-25T09:50:34Z
dc.date.available2025-04-25T09:50:34Z
dc.date.issued2024-01-26
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/206442
dc.description.abstractEnClimate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 • C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 • C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enClimate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/esd-15-41-2024en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Océan, Atmosphèreen_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Interfaces continentales, environnementen_US
bordeaux.journalEarth System Dynamicsen_US
bordeaux.page41 - 74en_US
bordeaux.volume15en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue1en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-04446670
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccCC BYen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Earth%20System%20Dynamics&rft.date=2024-01-26&rft.volume=15&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=41%20-%2074&rft.epage=41%20-%2074&rft.eissn=2190-4979&rft.issn=2190-4979&rft.au=WUNDERLING,%20Nico&VON%20DER%20HEYDT,%20Anna&AKSENOV,%20Yevgeny&BARKER,%20Stephen&BASTIAANSEN,%20Robbin&rft.genre=article


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