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Decadal Prediction Centers Prepare for a Major Volcanic Eruption

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorSOSPEDRA-ALFONSO, Reinel
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorMERRYFIELD, William
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Space and Atmospheric Studies [Saskatoon] [ISAS]
dc.contributor.authorTOOHEY, Matthew
hal.structure.identifierMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M]
dc.contributor.authorTIMMRECK, Claudia
hal.structure.identifierNational Institute of Aerospace [Hampton] [NIA]
hal.structure.identifierNASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] [LaRC]
dc.contributor.authorVERNIER, Jean-Paul
hal.structure.identifierBjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR]
dc.contributor.authorBETHKE, Ingo
hal.structure.identifierNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC]
hal.structure.identifierBjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR]
dc.contributor.authorWANG, Yiguo
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorBILBAO, Roberto
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorDONAT, Markus
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Pablo
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorCOLE, Jason
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorLEE, Woo-Sung
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorDELWORTH, Thomas
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorPAYNTER, David
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorZENG, Fanrong
hal.structure.identifierUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research [UCAR]
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorZHANG, Liping
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [LOCEAN-VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorKHODRI, Myriam
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [LOCEAN-VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorMIGNOT, Juliette
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) [LMD]
dc.contributor.authorTORRES, Olivier
hal.structure.identifierLaboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics [LASG]
dc.contributor.authorHU, Shuai
hal.structure.identifierLaboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics [LASG]
dc.contributor.authorMAN, Wenmin
hal.structure.identifierState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather [LASW]
hal.structure.identifierChinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences [CAMS]
dc.contributor.authorZUO, Meng
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorHERMANSON, Leon
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorSMITH, Doug
hal.structure.identifierJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology [JAMSTEC]
dc.contributor.authorKATAOKA, Takahito
hal.structure.identifierJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology [JAMSTEC]
hal.structure.identifierAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] [AORI]
dc.contributor.authorTATEBE, Hiroaki
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-04T08:28:45Z
dc.date.available2025-04-04T08:28:45Z
dc.date.issued2024-12
dc.identifier.issn0003-0007en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/205955
dc.description.abstractEnAbstract The World Meteorological Organization’s Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction issues operational forecasts annually as guidance for regional climate centers, climate outlook forums, and national meteorological and hydrological services. The occurrence of a large volcanic eruption such as that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, however, would invalidate these forecasts and prompt producers to modify their predictions. To assist and prepare decadal prediction centers for this eventuality, the Volcanic Response activities under the World Climate Research Programme’s Atmospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (APARC) and the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) organized a community exercise to respond to a hypothetical large eruption occurring in April 2022. As part of this exercise, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol forcing generator was used to provide stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical properties customized to the configurations of individual decadal prediction models. Participating centers then reran forecasts for 2022–26 from their original initialization dates and, in most cases, also from just before the eruption at the beginning of April 2022, according to two candidate response protocols. This article describes various aspects of this APARC/DCPP Volcanic Response Readiness Exercise (VolRes-RE), including the hypothesized volcanic event, the modified forecasts under the two protocols from the eight contributing centers, the lessons learned during the coordination and execution of this exercise, and the recommendations to the decadal prediction community for the response to an actual eruption.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
dc.title.enDecadal Prediction Centers Prepare for a Major Volcanic Eruption
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/bams-d-23-0111.1en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]en_US
bordeaux.journalBulletin of the American Meteorological Societyen_US
bordeaux.pageE2496-E2524en_US
bordeaux.volume105en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue12en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-04943788
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccCC BYen_US
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