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No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation

dc.contributor.authorKLESSE, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorPETERS, Richard
hal.structure.identifierWilfrid Laurier University [WLU]
dc.contributor.authorALFARO‐SÁNCHEZ, Raquel
hal.structure.identifierSILVA [SILVA]
dc.contributor.authorBADEAU, Vincent
dc.contributor.authorBAITTINGER, Claudia
hal.structure.identifierUniversità degli studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" = University of the Study of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli
dc.contributor.authorBATTIPAGLIA, Giovanna
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorBERT, Didier
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Nevada [Reno]
dc.contributor.authorBIONDI, Franco
hal.structure.identifierTechnical University in Zvolen [TUZVO]
dc.contributor.authorBOSELA, Michal
dc.contributor.authorBUDEANU, Marius
hal.structure.identifierCzech University of Life Sciences Prague [CZU]
dc.contributor.authorČADA, Vojtěch
hal.structure.identifierInstituto Pirenaico de Ecologìa = Pyrenean Institute of Ecology [Zaragoza] [IPE - CSIC]
dc.contributor.authorCAMARERO, J
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Stirling
dc.contributor.authorCAVIN, Liam
hal.structure.identifierGembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Faculté universitaire des sciences agronomiques de Gembloux] [[FUSAGx]]
dc.contributor.authorCLAESSENS, Hugues
dc.contributor.authorCRETAN, Ana‐maria
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Ljubljana
dc.contributor.authorČUFAR, Katarina
hal.structure.identifierUniversidad de Zaragoza = University of Zaragoza [Saragossa University] = Université de Saragosse
dc.contributor.authorDE LUIS, Martin
hal.structure.identifierCentro de Investigacion Forestal [INIA-CIFOR]
dc.contributor.authorDORADO‐LIÑÁN, Isabel
dc.contributor.authorDULAMSUREN, Choimaa
hal.structure.identifierCentre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries = Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals [CREAF]
dc.contributor.authorESPELTA, Josep
dc.contributor.authorGARAMSZEGI, Balazs
dc.contributor.authorGRABNER, Michael
dc.contributor.authorGRICAR, Jozica
dc.contributor.authorHACKET‐PAIN, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorHANSEN, Jon
dc.contributor.authorHARTL, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorHEVIA, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorHOBI, Martina
dc.contributor.authorJANDA, Pavel
dc.contributor.authorJUMP, Alistair
dc.contributor.authorKAŠPAR, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorKAZIMIROVIĆ, Marko
dc.contributor.authorKEREN, Srdjan
dc.contributor.authorKREYLING, Juergen
dc.contributor.authorLAND, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorLATTE, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorLEBOURGEOIS, François
dc.contributor.authorLEUSCHNER, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorLÉVESQUE, Mathieu
dc.contributor.authorLONGARES, Luis
dc.contributor.authorDEL CASTILLO, Edurne
dc.contributor.authorMENZEL, Annette
dc.contributor.authorMERELA, Maks
dc.contributor.authorMIKOLÁŠ, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMOTTA, Renzo
dc.contributor.authorMUFFLER, Lena
dc.contributor.authorNEYCKEN, Anna
dc.contributor.authorNOLA, Paola
dc.contributor.authorPANAYOTOV, Momchil
dc.contributor.authorPETRITAN, Any
dc.contributor.authorPETRITAN, Ion
dc.contributor.authorPOPA, Ionel
dc.contributor.authorPRISLAN, Peter
dc.contributor.authorLEVANIČ, Tom
dc.contributor.authorROIBU, Catalin‐constantin
dc.contributor.authorRUBIO‐CUADRADO, Álvaro
dc.contributor.authorSÁNCHEZ‐SALGUERO, Raúl
dc.contributor.authorŠAMONIL, Pavel
dc.contributor.authorSTAJIĆ, Branko
dc.contributor.authorSVOBODA, Miroslav
dc.contributor.authorTOGNETTI, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorTOROMANI, Elvin
dc.contributor.authorTROTSIUK, Volodymyr
dc.contributor.authorVAN DER MAATEN, Ernst
dc.contributor.authorVAN DER MAATEN‐THEUNISSEN, Marieke
dc.contributor.authorVANNOPPEN, Astrid
dc.contributor.authorVAŠÍČKOVÁ, Ivana
dc.contributor.authorVON ARX, Georg
dc.contributor.authorWILMKING, Martin
dc.contributor.authorWEIGEL, Robert
dc.contributor.authorZLATANOV, Tzvetan
dc.contributor.authorZANG, Christian
dc.contributor.authorBURAS, Allan
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-09T03:02:18Z
dc.date.available2025-01-09T03:02:18Z
dc.date.issued2024-10
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/204197
dc.description.abstractEn<div><p>With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R 2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.</p></div>
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.enclimate sensitivity
dc.subject.endrought
dc.subject.enFagus sylvatica
dc.subject.engrowth projection
dc.subject.enleading edge
dc.subject.entrailing edge
dc.subject.entree rings
dc.title.enNo Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.17546
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
bordeaux.journalGlobal Change Biology
bordeaux.pagee17546
bordeaux.volume30
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesBioGeCo (Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés) - UMR 1202*
bordeaux.issue10
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeaux
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04874159
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04874159v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&amp;rft.jtitle=Global%20Change%20Biology&amp;rft.date=2024-10&amp;rft.volume=30&amp;rft.issue=10&amp;rft.spage=e17546&amp;rft.epage=e17546&amp;rft.eissn=1354-1013&amp;rft.issn=1354-1013&amp;rft.au=KLESSE,%20Stefan&amp;PETERS,%20Richard&amp;ALFARO%E2%80%90S%C3%81NCHEZ,%20Raquel&amp;BADEAU,%20Vincent&amp;BAITTINGER,%20Claudia&amp;rft.genre=article


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