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Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierProcessus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts [PARVATI]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
dc.contributor.authorMIGNOT, Juliette
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques [LOCEAN]
dc.contributor.authorGARCÍA-SERRANO, Javier
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques [LOCEAN]
dc.contributor.authorGERME, Agathe
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques [LOCEAN]
dc.contributor.authorNGUYEN, Sébastien
hal.structure.identifierNCAS-Climate [Reading]
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques [LOCEAN]
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Pablo
hal.structure.identifierNCAS-Climate [Reading]
hal.structure.identifierProcessus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts [PARVATI]
dc.contributor.authorGUILYARDI, Éric
hal.structure.identifierAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] [AOS Program]
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques [LOCEAN]
dc.contributor.authorRAY, Sulagna
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-01T11:30:52Z
dc.date.available2024-10-01T11:30:52Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/202089
dc.description.abstractEnTwo decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal prediction exercises, a high frequency of start dates is needed to achieve robust statistical significance, and a large ensemble size is required to increase the signal to noise ratio.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.subject.enSurface nudging
dc.subject.enOceanic predictability
dc.subject.enDecadal variability
dc.title.enDecadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologieen_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Océan, Atmosphèreen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeSeasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of EuropeanClimate Servicesen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeNorth Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and changeen_US
bordeaux.journalClimate Dynamicsen_US
bordeaux.page1225-1246en_US
bordeaux.volume47en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue3en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-01390803
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Climate%20Dynamics&rft.date=2016&rft.volume=47&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=1225-1246&rft.epage=1225-1246&rft.eissn=0930-7575&rft.issn=0930-7575&rft.au=MIGNOT,%20Juliette&GARC%C3%8DA-SERRANO,%20Javier&SWINGEDOUW,%20Didier&GERME,%20Agathe&NGUYEN,%20S%C3%A9bastien&rft.genre=article


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