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Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorFISCHER, Hubertus
hal.structure.identifierClimate Change Research Centre [Sydney] [CCRC]
dc.contributor.authorMEISSNER, Katrin
hal.structure.identifierCollege of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Corvallis] [CEOAS]
dc.contributor.authorMIX, Alan
hal.structure.identifierAustralian National University [ANU]
dc.contributor.authorABRAM, Nerilie
hal.structure.identifierBullard Laboratories
dc.contributor.authorAUSTERMANN, Jacqueline
hal.structure.identifierMax Planck Institute for Meteorology [MPI-M]
dc.contributor.authorBROVKIN, Victor
hal.structure.identifierBritish Antarctic Survey [BAS]
hal.structure.identifierCentre for Ice and Climate [Copenhagen]
dc.contributor.authorCAPRON, Emilie
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorCOLOMBAROLI, Daniel
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorDANIAU, Anne
hal.structure.identifierLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory [LDEO]
dc.contributor.authorDYEZ, Kelsey
hal.structure.identifierCenter for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen] [MARUM]
dc.contributor.authorFELIS, Thomas
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Toronto
dc.contributor.authorFINKELSTEIN, Sarah
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorJACCARD, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorMCCLYMONT, Erin
hal.structure.identifierCenter for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen] [MARUM]
dc.contributor.authorROVERE, Alessio
hal.structure.identifierAlfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine [AWI]
dc.contributor.authorSUTTER, Johannes
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Cambridge [Cambridge, UK] [CAM]
dc.contributor.authorWOLFF, Eric
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorAFFOLTER, Stéphane
hal.structure.identifierCenter for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen] [MARUM]
dc.contributor.authorBAKKER, Pepijn
hal.structure.identifierUniversité de Genève = University of Geneva [UNIGE]
dc.contributor.authorBALLESTEROS-CÁNOVAS, Juan Antonio
hal.structure.identifierInstitute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes-CNR
dc.contributor.authorBARBANTE, Carlo
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorCALEY, Thibaut
hal.structure.identifierCollege of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Corvallis] [CEOAS]
dc.contributor.authorCARLSON, Anders
hal.structure.identifierUniversité de Genève = University of Geneva [UNIGE]
dc.contributor.authorCHURAKOVA, Olga
hal.structure.identifierGNS Science [Lower Hutt]
dc.contributor.authorCORTESE, Giuseppe
hal.structure.identifierQueen's University [Kingston, Canada]
dc.contributor.authorCUMMING, Brian
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Earth Surface Dynamics [Lausanne]
dc.contributor.authorDAVIS, Basil
hal.structure.identifierCentre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre [GEOTOP]
dc.contributor.authorDE VERNAL, Anne
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Southern California [USC]
dc.contributor.authorEMILE-GEAY, Julien
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Nebraska–Lincoln
dc.contributor.authorFRITZ, Sherilyn
hal.structure.identifierAlfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine [AWI]
dc.contributor.authorGIERZ, Paul
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorGOTTSCHALK, Julia
hal.structure.identifierBritish Antarctic Survey [BAS]
dc.contributor.authorHOLLOWAY, Max
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorJOOS, Fortunat
hal.structure.identifierCenter for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen] [MARUM]
dc.contributor.authorKUCERA, Michal
hal.structure.identifierPAGES International Project Office
dc.contributor.authorLOUTRE, Marie-France
hal.structure.identifierSchool of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
dc.contributor.authorLUNT, Daniel
hal.structure.identifierLaboratory of Wetland Ecology and Monitoring
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorMARCISZ, Katarzyna
hal.structure.identifierSchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies
dc.contributor.authorMARLON, Jennifer
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorMARTINEZ, Matias
hal.structure.identifierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE]
hal.structure.identifierGlaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables [GLACCIOS]
dc.contributor.authorMASSON-DELMOTTE, Valérie
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorNEHRBASS-AHLES, Christoph
hal.structure.identifierNational Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR]
dc.contributor.authorOTTO-BLIESNER, Bette
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorRAIBLE, Christoph
hal.structure.identifierUni Research Climate
dc.contributor.authorRISEBROBAKKEN, Bjørg
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
hal.structure.identifierUniversité Paris Sciences et Lettres [PSL]
dc.contributor.authorSANCHEZ GONI, Maria
IDREF: 057015627
hal.structure.identifierNational Coordination Office, Washington
dc.contributor.authorARRIGO, Jennifer Saleem
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Geosciences [Kiel]
dc.contributor.authorSARNTHEIN, Michael
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Geology, Quaternary Sciences
dc.contributor.authorSJOLTE, Jesper
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorSTOCKER, Thomas
hal.structure.identifierClimate and Environmental Physics [Bern] [CEP]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorVELASQUEZ ALVÁREZ, Patricio
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorTINNER, Willy
hal.structure.identifierSchool of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
dc.contributor.authorVALDES, Paul
hal.structure.identifierHelmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research [UFZ]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorVOGEL, Hendrik
hal.structure.identifierInstitute of Geography [Bern]
hal.structure.identifierOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research [OCCR]
dc.contributor.authorWANNER, Heinz
hal.structure.identifierNansen-Zhu International Research Center [NZC]
dc.contributor.authorYAN, Qing
hal.structure.identifierLehigh University [Bethlehem]
dc.contributor.authorYU, Zicheng
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Earth Sciences [Utrecht]
hal.structure.identifierEcole Polytechnique Fédérale de Zurich
dc.contributor.authorZIEGLER, Martin
dc.contributor.authorZHOU, Liping
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-24T11:57:35Z
dc.date.available2024-05-24T11:57:35Z
dc.date.issued2018-07
dc.identifier.issn1752-0894en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/200022
dc.description.abstractEnOver the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enPalaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terreen_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologieen_US
bordeaux.journalNature Geoscienceen_US
bordeaux.page474 - 485en_US
bordeaux.volume11en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue7en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifiercea-01883055
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature%20Geoscience&rft.date=2018-07&rft.volume=11&rft.issue=7&rft.spage=474%20-%20485&rft.epage=474%20-%20485&rft.eissn=1752-0894&rft.issn=1752-0894&rft.au=FISCHER,%20Hubertus&MEISSNER,%20Katrin&MIX,%20Alan&ABRAM,%20Nerilie&AUSTERMANN,%20Jacqueline&rft.genre=article


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