Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | MOHAREB, Amir M | |
| dc.contributor.author | KIM, Arthur Y | |
| dc.contributor.author | BOYD, Anders | |
| dc.contributor.author | NOUBARY, Farzad | |
| dc.contributor.author | KOUAME, Menan Gerard | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Global Health in the Global South [GHiGS] | |
| dc.contributor.author | ANGLARET, Xavier | |
| dc.contributor.author | COFFIE, Patrick A | |
| dc.contributor.author | EHOLIE, Serge Paul | |
| dc.contributor.author | FREEDBERG, Kenneth A | |
| dc.contributor.author | HYLE, Emily P | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-05-06T13:51:47Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-05-06T13:51:47Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-01-12 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2044-6055 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/199664 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | Objectives Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes. Methods We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >10(6) copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC). Results Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies. Conclusions We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management. | |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.subject.en | Hepatology | |
| dc.subject.en | Public health | |
| dc.subject.en | VIROLOGY | |
| dc.title.en | Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model | |
| dc.title.alternative | BMJ Open | en_US |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073498 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie | en_US |
| dc.identifier.pubmed | 38216186 | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | BMJ Open | en_US |
| bordeaux.page | e073498 | en_US |
| bordeaux.volume | 14 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219 | en_US |
| bordeaux.issue | 1 | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | INSERM | en_US |
| bordeaux.team | GHIGS_BPH | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| bordeaux.identifier.funderID | Institut de Recherche pour le Développement | en_US |
| bordeaux.identifier.funderID | National Institutes of Health | en_US |
| hal.identifier | hal-04569807 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.date.transferred | 2024-05-06T13:51:51Z | |
| hal.popular | non | en_US |
| hal.audience | Internationale | en_US |
| hal.export | true | |
| dc.rights.cc | Pas de Licence CC | en_US |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=BMJ%20Open&rft.date=2024-01-12&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=e073498&rft.epage=e073498&rft.eissn=2044-6055&rft.issn=2044-6055&rft.au=MOHAREB,%20Amir%20M&KIM,%20Arthur%20Y&BOYD,%20Anders&NOUBARY,%20Farzad&KOUAME,%20Menan%20Gerard&rft.genre=article |
