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Variance-based sensitivity analysis of a wind risk model - Model behaviour and lessons for forest modelling

hal.structure.identifierSchool of GeoSciences
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
dc.contributor.authorLOCATELLI, Tommaso
hal.structure.identifierJoint Research Centre
dc.contributor.authorTARANTOLA, Stefano
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
dc.contributor.authorGARDINER, Barry
hal.structure.identifierSchool of GeoSciences
dc.contributor.authorPATENAUDE, Genevieve
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-08T12:11:12Z
dc.date.available2024-04-08T12:11:12Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn1364-8152
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/196679
dc.description.abstractEnWe submitted the semi-empirical, process-based wind-risk model ForestGALES to a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the method of Soboĺ for correlated variables proposed by Kucherenko et al. (2012). Our results show that ForestGALES is able to simulate very effectively the dynamics of wind damage to forest stands, as the model architecture reflects the significant influence of tree height, stocking density, dbh, and size of an upwind gap, on the calculations of the critical wind speeds of damage. These results highlight the importance of accurate knowledge of the values of these variables when calculating the risk of wind damage with ForestGALES. Conversely, rooting depth and soil type, i.e. the model input variables on which the empirical component of ForestGALES that describes the resistance to overturning is based, contribute only marginally to the variation in the outputs. We show that these two variables can confidently be fixed at a nominal value without significantly affecting the model's predictions. The variance-based method used in this study is equally sensitive to the accurate description of the probability distribution functions of the scrutinised variables, as it is to their correlation structure.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.subjectdégât dû au vent
dc.subjectdégât en forêt
dc.subjectmodèle
dc.subject.enmethod of Soboĺ
dc.subject.enassessment of model performance
dc.subject.enCopula method
dc.subject.encorrelated variables
dc.subject.enwind damage
dc.subject.ennumerical models
dc.title.enVariance-based sensitivity analysis of a wind risk model - Model behaviour and lessons for forest modelling
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.010
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]
bordeaux.journalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
bordeaux.page84-109
bordeaux.volume87
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInteractions Soil Plant Atmosphere (ISPA) - UMR 1391*
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux Sciences Agro
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-01531776
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceNon spécifiée
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-01531776v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Environmental%20Modelling%20and%20Software&rft.date=2017&rft.volume=87&rft.spage=84-109&rft.epage=84-109&rft.eissn=1364-8152&rft.issn=1364-8152&rft.au=LOCATELLI,%20Tommaso&TARANTOLA,%20Stefano&GARDINER,%20Barry&PATENAUDE,%20Genevieve&rft.genre=article


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