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Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought

hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
dc.contributor.authorSCHWANTES, Amanda M.
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering
dc.contributor.authorPAROLARI, Anthony J.
hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
dc.contributor.authorSWENSON, Jennifer J.
hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
hal.structure.identifierWarnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources
dc.contributor.authorJOHNSON, Daniel M.
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
dc.contributor.authorDOMEC, Jean-Christophe
hal.structure.identifierNicholas School of the Environment
hal.structure.identifierStanford University
dc.contributor.authorJACKSON, Robert B.
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
hal.structure.identifierPrinceton Environmental Institute [Princeton University] [PEI]
dc.contributor.authorPELAK, Norman
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
hal.structure.identifierPrinceton Environmental Institute [Princeton University] [PEI]
dc.contributor.authorPORPORATO, Amilcare
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-08T12:05:12Z
dc.date.available2024-04-08T12:05:12Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.issn0028-646X
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/196344
dc.description.abstractEnAs climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.subjectsoil moisture
dc.subject.enclimate change
dc.subject.endrought-induced tree mortality
dc.subject.enheat load
dc.subject.enlandscape diversity
dc.subject.enstochastic processes
dc.subject.entopographic convergence
dc.subject.enwater stress
dc.title.enAccounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/nph.15274
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
bordeaux.journalNew Phytologist
bordeaux.page132-146
bordeaux.volume220
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInteractions Soil Plant Atmosphere (ISPA) - UMR 1391*
bordeaux.issue1
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux Sciences Agro
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02623775
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02623775v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=New%20Phytologist&rft.date=2018&rft.volume=220&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=132-146&rft.epage=132-146&rft.eissn=0028-646X&rft.issn=0028-646X&rft.au=SCHWANTES,%20Amanda%20M.&PAROLARI,%20Anthony%20J.&SWENSON,%20Jennifer%20J.&JOHNSON,%20Daniel%20M.&DOMEC,%20Jean-Christophe&rft.genre=article


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