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Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

dc.contributor.authorMCDOWELL, N. G.
dc.contributor.authorWILLIAMS, A. P.
dc.contributor.authorXU, C.
hal.structure.identifierThe University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
dc.contributor.authorPOCKMAN, W. T.
dc.contributor.authorDICKMAN, L. T.
dc.contributor.authorSEVANTO, S.
hal.structure.identifierThe University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
dc.contributor.authorPANGLE, R.
hal.structure.identifierThe University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
dc.contributor.authorLIMOUSIN, J.
hal.structure.identifierThe University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
dc.contributor.authorPLAUT, J.
dc.contributor.authorMACKAY, D. S.
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
dc.contributor.authorOGEE, Jerome
hal.structure.identifierInteractions Sol Plante Atmosphère [UMR ISPA]
hal.structure.identifierDuke University [Durham]
dc.contributor.authorDOMEC, Jean-Christophe
hal.structure.identifierFort Collins Science Center
dc.contributor.authorALLEN, C. D.
hal.structure.identifierNational Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR]
dc.contributor.authorFISHER, R. A.
hal.structure.identifierNational Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR]
dc.contributor.authorJIANG, X.
dc.contributor.authorMUSS, J. D.
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Arizona
dc.contributor.authorBRESHEARS, D. D.
hal.structure.identifierUniversity of Delaware [Newark]
dc.contributor.authorRAUSCHER, S. A.
hal.structure.identifierEarth Science Division [LBNL Berkeley] [ESD]
dc.contributor.authorKOVEN, C.
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-08T12:01:39Z
dc.date.available2024-04-08T12:01:39Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn1758-678X
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/196164
dc.description.abstractEnGlobal temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests1, 2 and their associated climatic feedbacks3, 4. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain5, 6 in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.title.enMulti-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/nclimate2873
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement/Biodiversité et Ecologie
bordeaux.journalNature Climate Change
bordeaux.page295-300
bordeaux.volume6
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesInteractions Soil Plant Atmosphere (ISPA) - UMR 1391*
bordeaux.institutionBordeaux Sciences Agro
bordeaux.institutionINRAE
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02639603
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02639603v1
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature%20Climate%20Change&rft.date=2016&rft.volume=6&rft.spage=295-300&rft.epage=295-300&rft.eissn=1758-678X&rft.issn=1758-678X&rft.au=MCDOWELL,%20N.%20G.&WILLIAMS,%20A.%20P.&XU,%20C.&POCKMAN,%20W.%20T.&DICKMAN,%20L.%20T.&rft.genre=article


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