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Seasonal spread and control of Bluetongue in cattle
| hal.structure.identifier | Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale [BIOEPAR] | |
| dc.contributor.author | CHARRON, Maud | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux [IMB] | |
| dc.contributor.author | LANGLAIS, Michel | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale [BIOEPAR] | |
| dc.contributor.author | SEEGERS, Henri | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale [BIOEPAR] | |
| dc.contributor.author | EZANNO, Pauline | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-04-04T02:24:58Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-04-04T02:24:58Z | |
| dc.date.created | 2011 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0022-5193 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/189851 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | Bluetongue is a seasonal midge-borne disease of ruminants with economic consequences on herd productivity and animal trade. Recently, two new modes of transmission have been demonstrated in cattle for Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8): vertical and pseudo-vertical transmission. Our objective was to model the seasonal spread of BTV8 over several years in a homogeneous population of cattle, and to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. We built a deterministic mathematical model accounting for the seasonality in vector abundance and all the modes of transmission. We proposed a counterpart of the basic reproduction number (R0) in a seasonal context (RS). Set A(t) is the number of secondary cases produced by a primary case introduced at time t. RS is the average of A(t). It is a function of midge abundance and vaccination strategy. We also used A*, the maximum of A(t), as an indicator of the risk of an epidemic. Without vaccination, the model predicted a large first epidemic peak followed by smaller annual peaks if RS>1. When RS<1, small epidemics could occur if A*>1. Vaccination reduced RS and A* to less than one, but almost perfect vaccine efficacy and coverage were required to ensure no epidemics occurred. However, a lower coverage resulting in RS>1 could decrease infection prevalence. A further step would be to optimize vaccination strategies by targeting an appropriate period of the year to implement the vaccination. | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | |
| dc.subject.en | vector-borne disease | |
| dc.subject.en | mathematical modelling | |
| dc.subject.en | sensitivity analysis | |
| dc.subject.en | vaccination | |
| dc.subject.en | vertical transmission. | |
| dc.subject.en | vertical transmission | |
| dc.title.en | Seasonal spread and control of Bluetongue in cattle | |
| dc.type | Article de revue | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.041 | |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie | |
| bordeaux.journal | Journal of Theoretical Biology | |
| bordeaux.page | 1-9 | |
| bordeaux.volume | 291 | |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) - UMR 5251 | * |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | |
| bordeaux.institution | Bordeaux INP | |
| bordeaux.institution | CNRS | |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | |
| hal.identifier | hal-00710404 | |
| hal.version | 1 | |
| hal.popular | non | |
| hal.audience | Internationale | |
| hal.origin.link | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-00710404v1 | |
| bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20Theoretical%20Biology&rft.date=2011&rft.volume=291&rft.spage=1-9&rft.epage=1-9&rft.eissn=0022-5193&rft.issn=0022-5193&rft.au=CHARRON,%20Maud&LANGLAIS,%20Michel&SEEGERS,%20Henri&EZANNO,%20Pauline&rft.genre=article |
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