Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem
Prospective océan-atmosphère 2023-2028
dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques [LISA (UMR_7583)] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut national des sciences de l'Univers [INSU - CNRS] | |
dc.contributor.author | DOUSSIN, Jean-Francois | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement [CEREGE] | |
dc.contributor.author | DE GARIDEL-THORON, Thibault | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale [LOPS] | |
dc.contributor.author | LHERMINIER, P. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) [LMD] | |
dc.contributor.author | BONY, S. | |
hal.structure.identifier | TROPO - LATMOS | |
dc.contributor.author | PAYAN, Sébastien | |
hal.structure.identifier | TROPO - LATMOS | |
dc.contributor.author | FLAMANT, Cyrille | |
hal.structure.identifier | Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique [PROTEO] | |
dc.contributor.author | CAPET, Xavier | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Chimie Atmosphérique Expérimentale [CAE] | |
dc.contributor.author | CHAZETTE, P. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'aérologie [LAERO] | |
dc.contributor.author | DELON, C. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre national de recherches météorologiques [CNRM] | |
dc.contributor.author | COUVREUX, Fleur | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE] | |
dc.contributor.author | DURAND, G. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique [LaMP] | |
dc.contributor.author | FRENEY, E. | |
hal.structure.identifier | TROPO - LATMOS | |
dc.contributor.author | LAW, Kathy S. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Océan du Large et Variabilité Climatique [OLVAC] | |
dc.contributor.author | MORROW, R. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique [CERFACS] | |
dc.contributor.author | SANCHEZ-GOMEZ, E. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 [LOA] | |
dc.contributor.author | RIÉDI, J. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC] | |
dc.contributor.author | SAVOYE, Nicolas | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche [LOV] | |
dc.contributor.author | D'ORTENZIO, F. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'aérologie [LAERO] | |
dc.contributor.author | LOHOU, F. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire Imagerie et Systèmes d'Acquisition [LISA] | |
dc.contributor.author | FORMENTI, Paola | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire Imagerie et Systèmes d'Acquisition [LISA] | |
dc.contributor.author | FORÊT, G. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE] | |
dc.contributor.author | UZU, G. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'aérologie [LAERO] | |
dc.contributor.author | LÉON, J. F. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre national de recherches météorologiques [CNRM] | |
dc.contributor.author | MORIN, Samuel | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] [LSCE] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires [SATINV] | |
dc.contributor.author | BOUSQUET, Philippe | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire Imagerie et Systèmes d'Acquisition [LISA] | |
dc.contributor.author | CIRTOG, M. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre national de recherches météorologiques [CNRM] | |
dc.contributor.author | MARÉCAL, Virginie | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE] | |
dc.contributor.author | SAVARINO, J. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques [LISA (UMR_7583)] | |
dc.contributor.author | DUFOUR, Gaelle | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut méditerranéen d'océanologie [MIO] | |
dc.contributor.author | WAGENER, Thibaut | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centre for Energy and Environment [CERI EE - IMT Nord Europe] | |
dc.contributor.author | SAUVAGE, Stephane | |
hal.structure.identifier | Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC] | |
dc.contributor.author | VILLENAVE, Eric | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement [IGE] | |
dc.contributor.author | SAVARINO, Joël | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institut méditerranéen d'océanologie [MIO] | |
dc.contributor.author | TAMBURINI, Christian | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche [LOV] | |
dc.contributor.author | D'ORTENZIO, Fabrizio | |
hal.structure.identifier | Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 [LOG] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale [ULCO] | |
dc.contributor.author | CHRISTAKI, Urania | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-13T11:06:04Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-03-13T11:06:04Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-09-30 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188778 | |
dc.description.abstractEn | Background: Southwest France golden-sand beaches are very popular destination for bathing and other sea activities in summer. However, they are also potentially dangerous environments with increased risk of accidents in unsupervised areas, especially during the off-peak season, due to strong rip-current and shorebreak waves. Predicting and quantifying these accidents is of major importance for public communication and emergency services management. Previous work on beach risk prediction was conducted along a specific section of the coast (Gironde), using data from 2011-2017 to train a model and further predict drowning incidents based on sea and weather forecasts, which has led to the development of an alert system based on a logistic regression model used by local decision makers [1]. Methods: In this study, we further improve this model by using new statistical methods related to machine learning, a larger dataset (2011-2022) and by including spatialization in order to propose a modelling framework that could be generalized to other coasts. We estimated drowning risk as a combination of hazard (ocean conditions) and exposure (beachgoer crowd). Several machine learning models were trained and compared using 3-day weather and sea forecasts from 2011 to 2022 as predictors along with an emergency calls database used as an outcome on the same time frame. The training set covered 188 drowning events over 1988 days while the test set covered 81 events over 663 days. Results: Our results show this new modeling framework is able to predict days with the highest risk of drowning events with improved accuracy on the Gironde coast: AUC = 0.9 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.91), PPV = 0.49 (95%CI 0.41 to 0.55) and NPV = 0.96 (95%CI 0.95 to 0.99). Conclusions: This supports the development of a new alert system that will provide useful information to decision makers. However, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” [2]. While this model could still be improved, with further feature engineering and improved data for rescues, this work also addresses the issue of identifying the right criteria to define what would actually be the “best” model depending on risk management policies set by decision makers. | |
dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ | |
dc.subject.en | decision trees | |
dc.subject.en | prediction | |
dc.subject.en | risk | |
dc.subject.en | beach safety | |
dc.subject.en | drowning | |
dc.subject.en | France | |
dc.subject.en | Machine learning | |
dc.title | Prospective océan-atmosphère 2023-2028 | |
dc.title.en | Synthèse des ateliers du colloque de synthèse de prospective du domaine océan-atmosphère (OA) des 10-13 janvier 2023 à Autrans et des groupes de travail préparatoires | |
dc.type | Rapport | en_US |
dc.subject.hal | Planète et Univers [physics] | en_US |
dc.subject.hal | Sciences de l'environnement | en_US |
bordeaux.hal.laboratories | EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805 | en_US |
bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
bordeaux.institution | CNRS | en_US |
bordeaux.type.institution | Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers | en_US |
bordeaux.team | ECOBIOC | en_US |
bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
bordeaux.import.source | hal | |
hal.identifier | hal-04334125 | |
hal.version | 1 | |
hal.popular | non | en_US |
hal.audience | Internationale | en_US |
hal.export | false | |
workflow.import.source | hal | |
dc.rights.cc | CC BY | en_US |
bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.title=Prospective%20oc%C3%A9an-atmosph%C3%A8re%202023-2028&rft.atitle=Prospective%20oc%C3%A9an-atmosph%C3%A8re%202023-2028&rft.date=2023-09-30&rft.au=DOUSSIN,%20Jean-Francois&DE%20GARIDEL-THORON,%20Thibault&LHERMINIER,%20P.&BONY,%20S.&PAYAN,%20S%C3%A9bastien&rft.genre=unknown |