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On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorBILY, Adrien
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorESQUERDO, Claire
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorBORCHERT, Leonard F.
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSGUBIN, Giovanni
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorMIGNOT, Juliette
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorMENARY, Matthew
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-04T07:52:53Z
dc.date.available2024-03-04T07:52:53Z
dc.date.issued2021-11
dc.identifier.issn0077-8923en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188541
dc.description.abstractEnCMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics—most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions—and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enOn the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models
dc.title.alternativeAnn N Y Acad Scien_US
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/nyas.14659en_US
dc.subject.halPhysique [physics]/Physique [physics]/Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeBlue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climaten_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeEuropean Climate Prediction systemen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeEmergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europeen_US
bordeaux.journalAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciencesen_US
bordeaux.page187-201en_US
bordeaux.volume1504en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue1en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-03318349
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Annals%20of%20the%20New%20York%20Academy%20of%20Sciences&rft.date=2021-11&rft.volume=1504&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=187-201&rft.epage=187-201&rft.eissn=0077-8923&rft.issn=0077-8923&rft.au=SWINGEDOUW,%20Didier&BILY,%20Adrien&ESQUERDO,%20Claire&BORCHERT,%20Leonard%20F.&SGUBIN,%20Giovanni&rft.genre=article


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