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Uncertainties in Shoreline Projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of Sea‐Level Rise and Equilibrium Model Assumptions

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorD'ANNA, Maurizio
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorCASTELLE, Bruno
IDREF: 087596520
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorIDIER, D.
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorROHMER, J.
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorLE COZANNET, G.
hal.structure.identifierBureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [BRGM]
dc.contributor.authorTHIEBLEMONT, R.
dc.contributor.authorBRICHENO, L.
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-14T15:11:36Z
dc.date.available2024-02-14T15:11:36Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn2169-9003en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188146
dc.description.abstractEnSandy shorelines morphodynamics responds to a myriad of processes interacting at different spatial and temporal scales, making shoreline predictions challenging. Shoreline modeling inherits uncertainties from the primary driver boundary conditions (e.g., sea-level rise and wave forcing) as well as uncertainties related to model assumptions and/or misspecifications of the physics. This study presents an analysis of the uncertainties associated with future shoreline evolution at the cross-shore transport dominated sandy beach of Truc Vert (France) over the 21st century. We explicitly resolve wave-driven shoreline change using two different equilibrium modeling approaches to provide new insight into the contributions of sea-level rise, and free model parameters uncertainties on future shoreline change in the frame of climate change. Based on a Global Sensitivity Analysis, shoreline response during the first half of the century is found to be mainly sensitive to the equilibrium model parameters, with the influence of sea-level rise emerging in the second half of the century (∼2050 or later), under several simulated scenarios. The results reveal that the seasonal and interannual variability of the predicted shoreline position is sensitive to the choice of the wave-driven equilibrium-based model. Finally, we discuss the importance of the chronology of wave events in future shoreline change, calling for more continuous wave projection time series to further address uncertainties in future wave conditions. Our contribution demonstrates that unmitigated climate change can result in shoreline retreat of several tens of meters by 2100, even for sectors that have been stable or slightly accreting over the last century.
dc.description.sponsorshipMarier les objectifs de défense côtière avec ceux de la protection du milieu naturel grâce aux dunes sableuses - ANR-17-CE01-0014en_US
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enUncertainties in Shoreline Projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of Sea‐Level Rise and Equilibrium Model Assumptions
dc.title.alternativeJ. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.en_US
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2021JF006160en_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Géomorphologieen_US
dc.subject.halPlanète et Univers [physics]/Interfaces continentales, environnementen_US
bordeaux.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surfaceen_US
bordeaux.pagee2021JF006160en_US
bordeaux.volume126en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue8en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamMETHYSen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-03411178
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20Geophysical%20Research:%20Earth%20Surface&rft.date=2021&rft.volume=126&rft.issue=8&rft.spage=e2021JF006160&rft.epage=e2021JF006160&rft.eissn=2169-9003&rft.issn=2169-9003&rft.au=D'ANNA,%20Maurizio&CASTELLE,%20Bruno&IDIER,%20D.&ROHMER,%20J.&LE%20COZANNET,%20G.&rft.genre=article


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